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Philip Tetlock | Image courtesy of University of Pennsylvania

Philip Tetlock discusses his new book, “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction,” revealing lessons he has learned about making predictions — lessons that have radical implications for present-day politics, policy, technology, journalism, and education.

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A new report attempts to project whether an Income Share Agreement (ISA) industry—which barely exists right now in the U.S.—would serve low-income students if the industry were to grow. Not only is predicting a future ISA market a speculative exercise of questionable value, but four of the six companies surveyed in the report aren’t even current ISA providers.

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Iranian President Hassan Rouhani waits to address attendees during the 70th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the U.N. headquarters in New York, September 28, 2015.   REUTERS/Carlo Allegri.

President Hassan Rouhani may have got the nuclear deal, but the struggle over the rest of his agenda has only just begun.

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Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton (R) is joined on stage by Martin O’Malley (C) and Bernie Sanders for the Iowa Democratic Party's Hall of Fame dinner in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, United States, July 17, 2015. Reuters

The race for the White House continues tonight with the first DNC debate. AEI scholars are available to comment before and after tonight’s showdown. Follow the conversation on Twitter with #AEI2016.

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Reporters get a tour of the room where democratic presidential candidates will debate at the Wynn Hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada October 13, 2015. Reuters

AEI’s Timothy P. Carney poses six questions the CNN moderators should ask the 2016 Democratic presidential contenders during their first debate.

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Artist's depiction of the Long Range Strike Bomber | US Air Force and Northrop Grumman

As it selects a contractor to develop and build a new long-range bomber, the US Air Force must be given bureaucratic power and initiative to control cost and navigate a complex, centralized acquisition system while ensuring that the bomber can penetrate modern, front-line air defenses at intercontinental distances.

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International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde (2nd R) gives a news conference next to IMF First Deputy Managing Director David Lipton, Mexico's central bank Governor Agustin Carstens and IMF Communications Director Gerry Rice (L-R) at the 2015 IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Lima, Peru, October 9, 2015.   REUTERS/Mariana Bazo.

Were the Fed to raise interest rates at the bequest of emerging market finance ministers, it would serve neither the interests of the US economy nor those of the emerging market economies.

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Former Presidents George Bush and Bill Clinton in New York, September 24, 2008. REUTERS/Chip East.

Given the importance of the 1990s Clinton Boom in the Case for Hillary, how should one think about those go-go years?

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Private organizations are doing important and innovative work to help connect Americans with jobs and to make the labor market work for all Americans.

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Before Democratic presidential candidates take the stage for their first primary debate, a panel of experts discuss America’s rapidly changing demography and implications for the 2016 election and beyond.

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In a letter to the editor of the Financial Times, Desmond Lachman cautions against relying on market perceptions of economic fundamentals when making global policy recommendations.

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Chinese officials must not place too much weight on the central bank to respond to the bursting of China’s credit bubble. Instead, a more sustainable solution requires that China deal decisively with its bad debt problem, restructure its banks, and redouble it efforts at economic reform.

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Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush speaks about healthcare reform at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire October 13, 2015.  Reuters

The lack of a Republican alternative on health care, and especially of an alternative that would enable almost everyone to get coverage, has been the great Democratic talking point in the debate over Obamacare. It’s one they may soon have to retire.

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