EVENTS

Date:	Monday, October 15, 2007
Time:	5:00 PM -- 6:00 PM
Location:	Wohlstetter Conference Center, Twelfth Floor, AEI 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036

October 2007

North Korea in the Age of Terror

While the recent round of six-party talks and the inter-Korean summit provide a hopeful vision for resolving the crisis on the Korean Peninsula, serious questions remain as to whether or not Pyongyang will ever dismantle its nuclear program or undertake fundamental reform. In his recent book, Red Rogue: The Persistent Challenge of North Korea (Potomac Books, 2007), Marine Corps University professor Bruce Bechtol describes North Korean decision-making since September 11. He argues that the Korean stalemate is here to stay, as the government of Kim Jong Il has made the fundamental decision to avoid any steps that would diminish its "military first" and "self-reliance" policies.

On October 15, 2007, AEI hosted a discussion of Mr. Bechtol's work and what North Korea's approach toward the nuclear crisis means for the United States and its allies in Asia.  

Bruce Bechtol
Marine Corps University

Kim Jong Il will have to focus his priorities in coming years to address several major concerns.

He faces inadequate resources and inadequate force modernization that threaten the effectiveness of his military. He also has to determine how to maintain support from the People's Republic of China (PRC) and retain control of PRC investments while keeping North Korea's nuclear program.

Kim will need to encourage Republic of Korea (ROK) reconciliation efforts so as to ensure the continued willingness of the ROK to provide aid with minimal oversight. To accomplish this, he must discourage the ROK public from the U.S.-ROK alliance.

Kim must also resolve the question of how to control the succession process in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). Domestically, he will face the challenge of maintaining the isolation, and thus control, of the North Korean populace. He will also battle corruption and diminishing loyalty among second- and third-tier leadership in his government.

In the international realm, Kim will have to determine how to resist international efforts to enforce and improve human rights in the DPRK. In the face of international pressure, it will be a challenge for him to continue pursuing a nuclear program and profiting from proliferation and other illicit activities.

As long as Kim Jong Il focuses on these priorities, the United States must follow a policy of detainment and deterrence through a strong U.S.-ROK alliance. This is the only way to maintain security on the Korean Peninsula.

Nicholas Eberstadt
AEI

This book comes at an extremely important time. There is a considerable amount of pressure on policymakers for a North Korean deal on denuclearization no matter what the terms of the agreement. Policymakers are also facing pressure to pursue a peace deal for the Korean Peninsula. Whenever there is pressure like this, less attention is paid to how things actually are. This book describes how things are.

Three observations regarding the book Red Rogue are worth considering. One, the use of the adjective "Stalinist" to describe the DPRK may not convey all of the information that needs to be understood--there is a unique racialism in the DPRK that did not exist in Stalin's time. Second, the term "revisionist state" might more accurately describe the DPRK than "rogue state," since the DPRK has a more focused set of complaints and disagreements with its neighbors. Finally, amidst the vast amounts of uncertainty that surround the financing of the regime in the DPRK, the U.S. goal should be to narrow those uncertainties so that economic pressure can be a viable tool against the DPRK.

AEI research assistant Catherine Hamilton prepared this summary.