EVENTS

Date:	Thursday, June 5, 2008
Time:	3:00 PM -- 4:30 PM
Location:	Wohlstetter Conference Center, Twelfth Floor, AEI 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036

 

India Aspires to Be a Credible World Power

 

 

WASHINGTON, JUNE 6, 2008 -- Boasting the world's fourth-largest economy, India has risen since its independence from British rule in 1947 to become a significant presence in the global economy. But with 70 percent of India's 1.1 billion people living on less than three dollars a day, can India really afford to be the great power some suggest it has become? Experts discussed this question at a June 5 conference at the American Enterprise Institute.

All three panelists agreed the notion of a "superpower" is becoming an irrelevant term in the twenty-first century as globalization increases. M. R. Sivaraman, the former permanent secretary minister of finance for the Indian government, said that since the United States has been unable to exert disproportionate influence on other countries since the end of the Cold War, the notion of a superpower has declined. "My country shouldn't aspire to be the kind of superpower you read about in books and newspapers," Sivaraman said. Retired naval commodore Uday Bhaskar, the convener of the India International Centre (IIC) Study Group, agreed that superpowers are becoming irrelevant and rephrased the question to instead ask: "Can India aspire to become a credible and relevant power?" Brookings Institution senior fellow Stephen P. Cohen added that measuring a country's power is a difficult task.

Putting aside the superpower concept, India still has a long way to go before it becomes a significant power, Sivaraman said. While India's purchasing power parity ranks among the top nations in the international order, the per-capita income of Indian citizens ranks at the bottom. India still faces many domestic obstacles. To boost the literacy rate from 60 percent will require an estimated $60–70 billion. Health costs will demand $30–40 billion, and to match China's energy use by 2032 would call for a 6.1 percent yearly increase in the country's megawatt power. Sivaraman said it would take roughly 9.47 percent of India's GDP in order to maintain a 9 percent annual growth rate. While the numbers make such growth a daunting task, India is dedicated to becoming a significant player in the economic market. "India's priority is economic growth and to become a country that can help others grow," Sivaraman added.

Bhaskar was also optimistic that India could become a credible power throughout the world. "India seems like it can't get its act together, but don't write India off yet. It is resilient," he said. While Bhaskar agreed that pressing domestic issues such as nuclear power, poverty, education, infrastructure, and human security will constrain India's potential as a great power, he focused on four notable characteristics of India that support his optimism:

• The nature of India's political culture and resilience is telling. The constitution, passed in 1949, has been a benchmark for countries coming out of colonial rule. India is home to over a billion individuals who firmly believe in the success of democracy.
• India's purchasing power parity is similar to that of the United States, China, Japan, and the European Union, and it can be sustained. 
• The country's military capability is growing, with a budget of roughly $3 trillion, almost a third of which will be spent on new procurement in the coming decades.
• India has extensive experience with peacekeeping operations and other peace-nurturing activities. This is an important contribution that India can make both to the international community and in its bilateral relationship with the United States.

India's security, however, is a serious concern. Cohen pointed out that the country is surrounded by neighbors who are either so strong as to be threatening or so weak as to provoke chaos. Cohen, who is currently writing a book on India's military power, further observed that India does not have effective policymaking mechanisms to assess and prioritize these threats. India currently has some fifteen domestic insurrections going on but has taken little action to address these uprisings and has instead left their resolution up to the hope that economic development will address underlying grievances. These constraints, as well as fundamental disagreements on issues like India's relationship with Iran, will remain obstacles to the U.S.-Indian security relationship for the foreseeable future.

India may thus not meet all of the high expectations placed upon it in recent years, but the country's resilient democratic institutions and continued economic development foretell of a promising future that will demand the world's attention.

--JENNA SCHUETTE

For video, audio, and more information about this event, visit www.aei.org/event1740/.

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