EVENTS

Date:	Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Time:	3:00 PM -- 4:30 PM
Location:	Wohlstetter Conference Center, Twelfth Floor, AEI 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036

 

U.S.-Japanese Ties at Risk in Tokyo Power Shift

 

 

WASHINGTON, OCTOBER 28, 2008--In the upcoming general election, Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is likely to fall short of holding the two-thirds majority it currently enjoys in the lower house of the Japanese Diet, and it may face the end of its half-century-long dominance of Japanese politics, Japan-watchers said at AEI on October 22. Instead, they added, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which currently holds a majority in the upper house, is likely to gain power. Although it is difficult to forecast the exact shape of the post-election political alignment, the panelists agreed that the new political configurations will signal change for Japanese politics and the U.S.-Japanese alliance.

Masaki Taniguchi of University of Tokyo and former Diet member Hideki Wakabayashi viewed the potential regime change as "a positive development for Japan's domestic politics." Taniguchi argued that a more competitive two-party system will benefit Japanese democracy. Until now, "the opposition party was too weak or offered only unrealistic policies," he said, but in the upcoming elections, Japanese citizens will be able to make a real choice. Furthermore, he noted, while the dominant LDP has historically had little incentive to listen to the public, its 2006 loss in the upper house is pushing the party to respond to public concerns.
 
"The iron triangle has to come down," Wakabayashi added. He criticized this LDP-created iron triangle, which creates clients out of interest groups dependent on bureaucrats or politicians for favors.

Panelists also discussed what new political developments in Japan portend for the U.S.-Japanese alliance and its current priorities, such as the realignment of U.S. forces in Japan and the renewal of legislation that authorizes the deployment of Japanese refueling vessels in the Indian Ocean. Mark Manyin of the Congressional Research Service proposed four different scenarios for the relationship based on the post-election political arrangement. He cautioned that a transition to two-party rule or a DPJ government could weaken the U.S.-Japanese alliance, especially in the short term. Under a two-party system, "Japan will become a less reliable partner for the United States." A DPJ win can also serve as an impediment to the alliance, since the party prefers a multilateral institution–focused foreign policy.

While Manyin expressed some concerns for the future of the U.S.-Japanese alliance, Wakabayashi remained optimistic. Many of the younger DPJ leaders are pro-alliance, he said, and even those favoring greater multilateral diplomacy are fully aware of the importance of the U.S.-Japanese link. 

--HAILLIE LEE

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For media inquiries, contact Véronique Rodman at vrodman@aei.org or 202.862.4870.

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