EVENTS

Date:	Thursday, November 14, 2002
Time:	9:00 AM -- 2:30 PM
Location:	Wohlstetter Conference Center, Twelfth Floor, AEI 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036

November 2002
Axis of Evil: Belarus--the Missing Link

Police break up a demonstration in the capital, Minsk, April 2002.

On November 14, leaders of the Belarusian opposition, international experts, and U.S. officials discussed Europe's last dictatorship--the regime of "President" Alexander Lukashenko. Panels focused on human rights violations and the disappearance of political opponents, arms sales to rogue states, and prospects for the reconstruction of Belarus once democracy is restored. Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) delivered the keynote address.

Introductory Remarks

Sam Gejdenson, a former Democratic congressman and Belarusian elections observer, described how ballot boxes were switched at a voting facility several years ago, a practice commonplace in Lukashenko's Belarus. Gejdenson appealed to Americans and Europeans to work together to assist the democratic opposition in Belarus. He warned that Lukashenko would take advantage of any disputes that arise between the United States and the European Union on this subject. Fellow panelist Michael Kozak, U.S. ambassador to Belarus, pointed out that Belarus was a model transition country in the early 1990s; Lukashenko's victory in the 1994 presidential elections caused an authoritarian relapse. Lukashenko had promised further reforms but as president returned Belarus to dictatorship and economic stagnation.

Ambassador Kozak also sketched out a road map of reciprocal moves by Belarus and the West that could lead the country out of self-imposed isolation. The former ambassador of the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe in Minsk, Hans-Georg Wieck, underscored how vital it is for Western assistance to consist not only of support for political parties but also for former Lukashenko allies, including officials from trade unions and youth and women's organizations. The OSCE has been paralyzed by Belarus's refusal to issue visas to OSCE personnel; nonetheless Wieck advised the OSCE to hold onto its original mandate and reject compromise with Lukashenko. He emphasized that the OSCE should stay alert and be prepared to send a new advisory and monitoring mission to Minsk at a moment's notice.

Belarus: A Human Rights Catastrophe

Pavel Sheremet's film on the disappearances of Dmitry Zavadsky, Anataoly Krasovsky, and Viktor Gonchar was shown to the conference's participants. According to director of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) Thomas Dine, Belarus is a human rights catastrophe. "This is a country of 10 million people where only one person is free," he stated. Irina Krasovskaya, wife of Lukashenko's missing opponent, described how a prison director told her of gun shipments from the Ministry of Internal Affairs to prisons to execute abducted political prisoners. Responsibility for the many abductions and murders lies with the current leadership. As the wife of one of the missing, Krasovskaya has become "untouchable" in her country and is completely isolated. Her neighbors have stopped talking to her out of fear, and even her own mother does not visit from fear of losing her state pension.

Nina Shea, member of the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom, explained how Belarus's new law on religion is among the most repressive in the world. Any religious activity in private homes is illegal, religious literature is censored, and religious groups are required to reregister periodically, which means that many of them will be outlawed. Even before the new law came into effect, the government had already bulldozed an autocephalous orthodox church, disallowed property sales to Protestants (termed "Western agents"), and published the "Protocols of the Elders of Zion" to fuel anti-Semitic sentiments. Andrey Sannikov, former deputy minister for foreign affairs of Belarus, criticized the West for tolerating human rights violations in Belarus. He recalled the OSCE chairman-in-office's visit to Minsk, during which he refrained from making any references to the democratic opposition.

Belarus as a Rogue State

RFE/RL analyst Jan Maksymiuk and Rafal Sadowski of the Center for Eastern Studies in Warsaw presented Belarus's history of dealings with Iraq. Belarus is one of the world's top ten arms exporters. As early as 1995, UN weapons inspectors discovered Belarusian equipment in Iraq. In 2000, the Belarusian state-owned company "Beltekhexport" signed a contract worth $90 million to extend the range of Iraqi antiaircraft batteries. Last year twenty Iraqi officers were trained to use S-300 antiaircraft systems, and Belarus almost certainly sold at least one such system to Iraq. Belarus also sells weapons to Iran, Libya, Sudan, and Angola. Belarusian companies and government officials often serve as middlemen for the sale of Russian military equipment. Each year the Russian and Belarusian ministries of defense and ministries of industry sign agreements regulating arms sales.

Last year Belarus earned between $333 million and $500 million from arms sales--and has earned more than $1.5 billion total since 1997. Arms sales amount to 10 percent of Belarus's annual budget, but they are kept in a separate "presidential" account. Ambassador Kozak admitted that the United States has intelligence information on Belarus's arms sales and presented the Lukashenko government with a démarche over the training of Iraqi officers. Former U.S. ambassador to Hungary Mark Palmer suggested that the United States must also be concerned with Russian involvement and that Russia is "on the edge" of slipping into the same proliferation category as Belarus. Radek Sikorski, NAI's executive director, said that "the message from this conference is: President Lukashenko, be careful--because if your buddy in Baghdad gets thrown out, we will find evidence of what you've been up to with him."

Belarus after Lukashenko

Andrey Klimov, a former political prisoner who is not allowed to leave Belarus, made a desperate appeal to the West in a recorded message not to abandon his country. The West has a mission to fulfill in Belarus, he stressed. Belarusians must overcome their fear--the communist mentality is still present even though the Soviet Union no longer exists. Stanislav Shushkevich, former head of state of Belarus and current leader of the Belarusian Social-Democratic Party "Gromada," claimed that the first step toward democracy must be the formation of a broad coalition, including everyone from Communists who oppose Lukashenko to the forces on the Center-Right.

Belarus after Lukashenko need not be anti-Russian. The United Civic Party's leader Anatoly Lyabedzka (who was detained by the Belarusian KGB and warned not to come to this conference) believes that Belarus's strategic aim must be membership in the European Union, which could be possible in the next ten to fifteen years. However, he expressed strong criticism of the level of "socialism" within the EU. Vincuk Viachorka of the Belarusian Popular Front stated that the Belarusians need to take matters into their own hands and should not count on the Russians to help their democratization. The Kremlin's withdrawing support from Lukashenko would be the best assistance. Viachorka urged the U.S. Congress to pass the Belarus Democracy Act.

Keynote Speech by Senator John McCain

Belarus is a security threat to the United States. In case of war with Iraq, American soldiers face the danger of being shot by the Belarus-trained Iraqi military with Belarus-supplied equipment. "A friend of our enemy is our enemy," he asserted. McCain believes that without Russian support, Lukashenko's regime would crumble and that the United States needs to convince Russia to revise its policy toward Belarus. Although it is not yet clear how Lukashenko's dictatorship will be brought down, it is certain that his rule cannot be tolerated by the West. The senator encouraged NATO to strip Belarus of its membership in the Partnership for Peace program and referred to Lukashenko's opponents as "heroes." He supports the Belarus Democracy Act.

The New Atlantic Initiative thanks the following cosponsors for their generous support: Freedom House, the International League for Human Rights, the International Republican Institute, the National Endowment for Democracy, the Pattis Family Foundation, and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.