EVENTS

Date:	Wednesday, February 18, 2004
Time:	8:30 AM -- 10:00 AM
Location:	Wohlstetter Conference Center, Twelfth Floor, AEI 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036

February 2004
Election Watch

The AEI Political Corner scholars-Karlyn H. Bowman, Norman J. Ornstein, and William Schneider-convened on February 18 to discuss the upcoming presidential election, the latest public opinion data, and the political scene in general. 

William Schneider
AEI

The Democratic Party, by rallying around Senator John Kerry, has never been more united.  The impetus for this display of unity is President Bush himself and the Democratic Party's focused determination to eject him from office.  Kerry could prove to be a strong nominee.  The results of the February 17 Wisconsin primary, in which Senator John Edwards finished narrowly behind Kerry, should not be seen as damaging to the front-runner.  Even though three-fifths of Wisconsin primary voters did not vote for Kerry, according to exit poll data, over two-thirds of Edwards's supporters said they would be satisfied with Kerry as the Democratic nominee.  When asked about the quality they like most in their candidate, many Kerry supporters say that they think he can stand toe-to-toe with the president on national security issues.  Kerry is a man "who makes them feel safe."  In this election, Democrats are determined not to repeat the mistakes of the 2002 congressional elections, in which they conceded the national security issue to the Republicans.  Instead of making expected gains, the Democrats lost seats in both houses of Congress.
 
Norman J. Ornstein
AEI

The fate of former Governor Howard Dean has re-emphasized the rule that in politics, anything can happen-and quickly.  Nevertheless, only an act of self-destruction could dislodge Kerry from his coronation.  Presidential approval ratings in the early months of presidential election years cannot accurately predict the outcome.  It would be best to wait until summer before drawing a correlation between job approval ratings and re-election prospects.  A list of important events scheduled to take place before the November election include the largest troop rotation since the Second World War, the transfer of power in Iraq from the United States to local authorities, and the elections in Taiwan, which may create a potential crisis in Southeast Asia.  If the $87 billion appropriated by Congress for Iraq and Afghanistan last year is insufficient, President Bush would need to go back to Congress for supplemental appropriations.  Such a request, on the eve of the November election, could be highly damaging to President Bush's campaign. 

Karlyn H. Bowman
AEI

President Bush's job approval ratings were around 50 percent-approximately where they were prior to the President's surprise Thanksgiving Day meal with the troops and the capture of Saddam Hussein in mid-December.  In presidential politics, the voters' first impressions of a candidate are extremely important in determining their vote.  Data in the Election Watch handout amply demonstrates that the voters' initial impressions of John Kerry have been largely positive.  On many personal characteristics, such as "is honest and trustworthy," Kerry is competitive with President Bush.  On other issues, such as "cares about the average American," Kerry even bests the incumbent.  Still, on many survey questions, more than 20 percent of respondents said they had no opinion, giving Republican operatives hope that they will be able define Kerry to their advantage.   Many Democratic activists hope to tarnish Bush's reputation for integrity, but Bush earned a reputation in the 2000 election for possessing honesty and integrity-a first impression, that despite escalating Democratic efforts, will be difficult to reverse. 

AEI research assistant Todd Weiner prepared this summary.