EVENTS

Date:	Wednesday, March 17, 2004
Time:	9:00 AM -- 11:30 AM
Location:	Wohlstetter Conference Center, Twelfth Floor, AEI 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036

March 2004
Foreign policy briefing with H.E. Javier Ruperez ,
Ambassador of the Kingdom of Spain to the United States

Javier Ruperez

On March 17, 2004, the New Atlantic Initiative held a briefing with Javier Ruperez, the ambassador of the Kingdom of Spain to the United States. Ambassador Ruperez, himself a victim of an ETA kidnapping in 1979, discussed the impact of the March 11 terrorist attacks in Madrid which claimed the lives of over two hundred people and wounded over a thousand.

March 11 will go down in history as the European September 11. Spain and Europe are still trying to recover from the shock. Right after the attacks, the Spanish government identified the Basque separatist and terrorist organization "Euskadi ta Askatasuna" (Basque Homeland and Liberty, or ETA) as the most likely perpetrator. The attacks fit the pattern of those previously planned by ETA. A month before the bombings, the police stopped a van carrying five hundred kilograms of explosives on its way to Madrid. Earlier, before Christmas, authorities arrested ETA terrorists who were planning a similar attack on a Madrid train station. The explosives and the detonators used in the March 11 bombings were made in Spain, which also indicated ETA involvement. However, the government never excluded the possibility that Al-Qaeda organized the bombings. When the investigation showed that radical Islamists might have been behind the attacks, the government immediately informed the public of this information.

The elections took place as planned despite high emotions and a tense atmosphere. Postponing them would have seemed like a concession to the terrorists. But the bombings did influence the outcome of the elections. The overall turnout of 78 percent was higher than usual; the defeat of the Popular Party (PP) was unexpected. However, the PP reacted promptly, acknowledging defeat and offering support to the Socialist Party (PSOE) in guiding the country through the transitional period and fighting terrorism.

Electoral campaigns are based on heated rhetoric, so it is difficult to make a prediction about what the precise policies of the future government will be. It is clear that Spain's relations with the United States will remain close, as they have been for the last fifty years. Spanish foreign policy has been the most consistent part of Spanish politics and has not generally been subject to radical change. It is important that the European Union learn to cooperate more closely because terrorist cells operate within Europe's borders. The beast we are fighting is within us. What is certain, though, is that the people of Spain reacted to the attacks in a civilized and democratic way. The Spanish authorities, who have been largely successful at fighting ETA, will now have to find the same determination to fight the Islamic terrorists.

One Year Later: An Update on Iraq

It has been one year since the beginning of the Iraq war. Since the opening bombs fell, Saddam Hussein's regime has collapsed, the Iraqi people are free of oppression for the first time in nearly three decades, and an interim law has been signed by the temporary government that will enable a transition to Iraqi sovereignty. The war to guarantee the Iraqi people the bright future they deserve is far from over, however. Security, terrorism, and economic development remain central concerns, and there is plenty of time for surprises before the June transfer of power. What do the Iraqi people think of progress thus far, and the road ahead? How will events in Iraq effect U.S. elections? Rend Rahim, representative of the Iraqi Governing Council to the United States, discussed these issues with AEI scholars at a March 17 event.

Rend Rahim
Representative of the Iraqi Governing Council to the United States

On the anniversary of the beginning of the Iraq war, the Iraqi nation and the people of Iraq are very grateful for the efforts of the Bush administration to remove a dictator that had stifled Iraq for so many years. For twenty-five million Iraqis, the United States military conducted a humanitarian intervention. The people of Iraq needed salvation from a regime that killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqis. This was a regime that so severely oppressed its people that it can only be compared to Hitler or Stalin. Twenty-five million Iraqis who could not have ousted Saddam alone are now free, but we still need support. We are building a nation that is unique in the region, and we will the need the United States and the coalition to do so.  We will work to build a long-term relationship with the U.S.

In reality, Iraq today is nothing like the Iraq shown on television. The news coverage in the Western media gives an extraordinarily one-sided view, making Iraq seem akin to the Wild West. The blood, gore, and shootouts are not representative of what is happening in Iraq.  Iraqis are living normal lives; they go shopping, they go to work, and they go out to nightclubs, bars, and restaurants. Iraq can be a dangerous place, but this is the exception rather than the rule, and as we have recently seen, even France and Spain are not immune from danger.

Many people outside Iraq would be gratified to see a civil war erupt-but there are no signs of ethnic or sectarian conflict in Iraq.  It is made evident by the Zarqawi letter that people outside Iraq want to derail Iraq's progress toward democracy, pluralism, and progress because they see the progress in Iraq as a threat to what they stand for. The attacks in Karbala on Ashoura were aimed at enflaming civil conflict. In August, there were bombs in Najaf that killed over two hundred people. In Baghdad, a Sunni sheikh was assassinated in his home, and an explosion in Erbil killed over one hundred Kurds.  But Iraqis refuse to fall for these traps. After each attack, the Iraqis have come together.  On Ashoura, both Sunni and Shi'a clerics and laymen came together to condemn the atrocities and promise that solidarity would prevail.

The Transitional Administrative Law is a sign of this solidarity, an extraordinary achievement, and the most progressive law in the Arab world. One year ago, there was no political discourse in Iraq, but drafting this law was an immense political undertaking. The law was drafted after extensive debate and negotiation. But there are still obstacles and challenges ahead, but with the partnership of the United States they can be faced.

One of those challenges is elections, but elections must be seen as a marker on the way to democracy, not democracy itself. There is pent-up demand for self-expression in Iraq; the desire for elections is part of this pent-up demand. But we will have national elections in December or January of 2005, and local elections are already taking place throughout Iraq. One major mistake by the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) was delaying local elections for so long, since they are integral to providing people a sense of participation and local empowerment.

The most important story in Iraq is the evolution that has occurred since the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime. The beginning of prosperity can be seen in Iraq. A growing number of people have jobs and their standard of living has vastly improved.  We have a large and ever-expanding civil society now.  Hundreds of NGOs and women's organizations have been formed in Iraq. These will be integral to the democracy Iraqis are trying to establish. This emerging democratic culture and civil society must be fostered.

Danielle Pletka
AEI

There are some who say the war on terror is the cause of modern terrorism, but the statistics seem to indicate otherwise. A recent BBC poll asked Iraqis how they felt their lives were going: seventy percent of Iraqis said their lives were very good or quite good.  Further, seventy-one percent of Iraqis said that they expected their lives to be better a year from now. The same poll shows over fifty percent of Iraqis believe that security is either much better or somewhat better now than it was a year ago.  This overwhelmingly positive response by Iraqis was reiterated through almost every category that the BBC poll measured. Iraqis have seen the improvement not only of security but also of the availability of jobs and their standard of living. Finally, over seventy-two percent of Iraqis said that they wanted United States and coalition forces to remain in Iraq.
 
Karlyn H. Bowman
AEI

A recent ABC News/Washington Post poll reported that only fifty-two percent of Americans felt that the war in Iraq was worthwhile, but this statistic alone does not reflect the depth of meaning. In the entirety of the Vietnam War, pollsters asked one thousand four hundred questions; in contrast, since the beginning of the war in Iraq they have asked in excess of three thousand five hundred questions.

Poll results consistently reveal that twenty percent of those polled want our troops to come home now. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll reveals that twenty-four percent of Americans want our troops out of Iraq now, while forty-eight percent believe that our troops should stay as long as necessary.  Similarly, a poll conducted by CBS News/New York Times reveals that fifty-eight percent of Americans feel that we made the right decision in going to war with Iraq, while forty-two percent believe that the war has been worthwhile when we measure the benefits against the number of lives which have been lost.  Every poll has shown that Americans recognized that the peace in Iraq, following the United States' intervention, would be more difficult than the war.

A recent Harris Interactive poll revealed that while sixty-two percent of Americans expressed confidence in the military, only thirty-one percent expressed confidence in the White House, and only fifteen percent said they had confidence in the press. Each year since the conclusion of the Gulf War, a majority of Americans polled by CBS News have expressed support for United States military action to oust Saddam Hussein.  Moreover, recent polling suggests that Americans believe the war on terrorism has improved the security of the United States. Americans have never been enthusiastic about foreign involvement, but most Americans feel that we must continue our fight against terror.

Reuel Marc Gerecht
AEI

There is reason to remain optimistic about Iraq, but the Bush administration has made many mistakes-which they are attempting to correct. First, the administration erred in initially agreeing to leave the Sunni officer corps intact. Second, the administration was incorrect in their initial support of a system of unelected transitional caucuses, but they did rectify this stance when Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani suggested direct elections. The CPA and Iraqi Governing Council (IGC) will design a system of democratic elections that will work in and for Iraq. The Transitional Administrative Law is an extraordinary document, and the primary power players-including al-Sistani-view this law as an important step forward for Iraq, which is the most essential thing. The worst-case scenarios have not come to pass. The Zarqawi letter shows that bin Laden's hopes will die because the goals of al-Qaeda cannot survive a representative system of government. 

Richard Perle
AEI

It has been suggested that the Iraqi National Congress (INC) gave false information to deceive the Americans into supporting their cause. It is a lie to suggest that the INC gave false information, and it is certainly a politically motivated lie to suggest that the INC intended to give false information. Moreover, it is a lie to suggest that the Bush administration failed to plan for the war in Iraq.

Where were the Arab governments when Saddam Hussein was murdering hundreds of thousands of people? One of the most disgusting chapters in recent history was the way in which the Arab League tolerated Saddam Hussein.

Finally, Rend Rahim was very eloquent on the refusal of Iraqis to be driven into a civil war. While the Iraqis have bravely refused to be stampeded, the Spanish electorate, sadly, has not.  It is a great tragedy that a Spanish socialist leader would stand up and say Iraq is a disaster-that the people of Iraq are worse off now than they were under Saddam Hussein.  It is an extraordinary moment in political history when a socialist would-be prime minister expresses remorse at the passing of a fascist regime.

Thomas Donnelly
AEI

Militarily, the main question is whether we are winning the war in Iraq. We have achieved our objectives while our enemies have failed to achieve theirs. Our enemies may have driven a wedge between the United States and our European allies, but this is of secondary importance. The attacks on Americans failed to achieve their purpose, so our enemies attacked the United Nations and our allies.

Clearly Iraq is headed toward sovereignty and some form of elected government. The United States and our coalition allies, while suffering some loss of life, have so far achieved overwhelming success.  Even if the elections in November change the American leadership, the reconstruction of Iraq will continue as planned.

AEI intern Jason Fill wrote this summary with AEI research coordinator Molly McKew.