With the 2010 census fast approaching, the governors' races taking place over the next two years will be very important in determining the way district lines are drawn. Since the greatest population growth is occurring in the southern and western parts of the United States, states in these regions will likely see an increased number of seats in their respective congressional delegations. The outcomes of governors' races in these states will help to determine which party benefits more from demographic shifts.

Research Fellow  John C. Fortier

The 2010 census will reapportion political power to reflect changes in population among the states. This heightens the importance of the gubernatorial and state legislative elections next year. Whoever is in power to draw new district lines will shape congressional majorities in the next decade.

Recent Census Bureau estimates tell a familiar story: America's population is growing and moving south and west.

But growth is uneven. The populations of the Northeast and Midwest have barely increased. So far this decade, Texas has added about as many people as the entire Northeast and Midwest combined. States like Michigan and Ohio are likely to show population increases of less than 2 percent for the decade; New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts will gain less than 5 percent. On the other hand, Arizona, Nevada and Utah will gain 30 percent or more, and the big states of Texas, Georgia and North Carolina will gain around 20 percent.

Various projections show Texas gaining four House seats, Arizona two, and a single-seat gain for Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and perhaps North Carolina and Oregon. It has been more than 40 years since a Northeastern or Midwestern state gained a seat after a census, and yet again losses will mostly come from these regions. Ohio is projected to lose two seats, and New Jersey, Iowa, New York, Illinois, Michigan, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and possibly Missouri will lose one. The only states to lose seats in the West or South will be Louisiana and possibly California.

So which governor races matter most?

Texas. With a projected four additional seats, Texas would send 36 members to the House in the 113th Congress. Texas' delegation today stands at 20 Republicans and 12 Democrats, an advantage partly due to mid-decade redistricting.

The Republican gubernatorial primary winner, either incumbent Rick Perry or Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, will look to hold the top job. And Republicans will need to retain control of the state House of Representatives, where Democrats have narrowed the GOP majority to one vote and where the election of a new Republican speaker may signal a less partisan era. But if Republicans overcome those obstacles, with complete control of the redistricting process, they could conceivably gain all four new seats.

California. It was the dog that did not bark in the last cycle of redistricting. Even though Democrats controlled the governorship and the legislature, they opted to protect Democratic and Republican incumbents. The result was very few competitive races; only one seat since 2002 has changed parties. The delegation today is 34 Democrats and 19 Republicans. If Democrats win back the governorship, they would have the opportunity to increase their delegation.

Georgia. Democrats controlled the redistricting process in 2002, but their plan to draw Democratic districts backfired on them, as Republicans held a majority of the state delegation. Republicans' turn could come in 2010, as they now control the legislature and look to hold the governorship after the exit of term-limited Gov. Sonny Perdue. With a 7-to-6 Republican edge in the delegation and an additional seat, creative line drawing could net Republicans a couple of seats.

Illinois. In the past eight years, the Republican Party in Illinois has fallen apart. In 2002, it controlled the redistricting process and produced a slim majority in its House delegation. Today, Democrats control both branches of government and enjoy an 11-to-7 advantage in the House delegation. The scandals of former Gov. Rod Blagojevich may open the door to a Republican winning the governorship. If Democrats retain the office, they have a chance to increase their delegation.

In 2002, Republicans controlled the redistricting process in Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan and produced maps that brought in big GOP delegations. Recent Democratic victories have wiped out those Republican advantages, and each state has divided control of its legislature. These are big states with closely divided delegations. But except for Ohio, where the makeup of the state apportionment board will depend on the outcome of several statewide races, these states are likely to see divided government and compromise maps that do not strongly favor either party.

Finally, governorships in Arizona, Iowa and New Jersey will be less important for redistricting purposes because these states rely on nonpartisan commissions. And in New York, where after many years, Democrats now control both chambers of the state legislature, the delegation stands at 26 Democrats and three Republicans. Even with the most sophisticated map making, there are effectively no seats to gain.

We know that more southern and western faces in Congress will appear over the next decade. Governors' races in 2010, however, could have something to say about which party occupies the new seats.

John C. Fortier is a research fellow at AEI.