The rush to judgment in the case of the recent removal of Honduran president Manuel Zelaya has brought to light the challenge of dealing with the emergence of 21st-century "caudillismo"--the new brand of strongmen running roughshod over democracy with the backing of Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez.  Indeed, Hondurans are moving on, and the conflict is not about Zelaya at all.  A majority in that country supports his ouster, and most are fiercely united to resist the bullying of Chavez.  How this matter is resolved--and the posture of the United States--will determine whether the strongmen have reached their high water mark or whether representative democracy has a fighting chance in the Americas.

In the ten days since Zelaya was arrested by troops and flown in to exile on June 28, several facts have emerged.  That early Sunday morning, the military had in hand a June 26 arrest warrant adopted unanimously by the independent Supreme Court.  Zelaya's reckless and illegal actions since March to gut the constitution and to overturn a sacrosanct prohibition on his reelection invoked a self-executing clause that expelled him from office (read Article 239 of the Honduran constitution).   The Congress voted 124-4 (including virtually all of Zelaya's own Liberal Party) to formally oust Zelaya and follow the constitutional succession to name his replacement, another Liberal.  The civilian institutions never stopped functioning freely, and the military never took power.  One member of the military leadership has admitted that it may have committed a crime by sending Zelaya into exile, and the civilian authorities are investigating.  The interim government is committed to holding elections this year and turning over power in January--something Zelaya was not committed to doing. 

Backing away from earlier demands for Zelaya's return to power, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is exercising genuine leadership by blessing mediation by Costa Rican president Oscar Arias.  She acted only after Zelaya and Secretary General Jose Miguel Insulza of the Organization of American States (OAS) buzzed the Honduran capital in a Venezuelan plane piloted by a fighter jock in a sloppy and dangerous bid to return to power.

The fact that Clinton said that she would not "prejudge" whether Zelaya should be restored--with the man standing at her side--suggests that she's done her homework and realizes that this was no "coup."  That she blessed the Arias' efforts signals a lack of confidence in the OAS, which turned a blind eye to Zelaya's anti-democratic actions.  Published reports this weekend that Clinton has decided not to support OAS Secretary General Insulza's reelection, if true, suggest that she is disappointed in the OAS's failure to defend genuine democracy from dictators and caudillos in Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, and Nicaragua. 

Honduras is a watershed event.  It may have stirred our new Secretary of State to act to salvage the region's commitment to representative democracy.  For Hondurans and for all the little guys who are tired of being pushed around by bullies, it is not a minute too soon.

Roger Noriega is a visiting fellow at AEI.