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This summer, Obama's approval rating appeared to be tanking. He was losing ground among a key group, political independents. But his ratings have stabilized, even risen slightly in some recent polls. What's the explanation and what's next?
Last week, Gallup reported a very significant drop in President Obama's ratings from the second to the third quarter, with most of the drop occurring in August. But polls this week show that the President's overall approval ratings are settling in the low- to mid-50s, a respectable range. 60% have a favorable opinion of him. That's down from January, but it is still a solid rating.
Throughout most of the year, he lost ground on almost every issue, but now his ratings appear solid in many areas. In an April GfK-Roper/Associated Press poll, 59% of those polled approved of the way Obama was handling terrorism; approval is now at 53%. Not too much change, and still positive. But there are still some danger signs: His marks on handling unemployment and the deficit are below 50% in many polls.
Large majorities didn't think either the Republicans or Democrats had made a sincere effort to find solutions acceptable to both parties, but they are still giving Obama credit for trying.
While people's perceptions of the president's personal qualities are eroding, they still remain strong. In Pew's February poll, for example, 76% said "trustworthy" described the president. In September, 64% gave that response. 77% said he was a strong leader in February; but 65% say that today.
When asked whether Obama has "the same priorities for the country" as you do, a solid 58% said yes in the October CBS News poll, down just slightly from the 62% that gave the response in July.
What explains his summer slump? The town hall meetings received lots of coverage, and they may have reminded people about the things they didn't like about the president, pulling the numbers down. Reports about the deficit and the cost of health care bills were much in the news this summer, and those, too, may have raised doubts.
The stability we're seeing now has several explanations. Americans are less enamored with Congress and the political parties than they were a few months ago, and Obama may look good by comparison.
Gallup reminds us that "low public approval of Congress is the norm." The body has myriad responsibilities and there is a lot to criticize. In October, just 21% approved of the job Congress was doing. Gallup reported that the decline in approval of Congress since the spring is coming from Democrats, while the president's ratings among Democrats are still very strong.
When people are asked whether they trust Obama, the Republicans or Democrats in Congress on health care, more people trust the president. Individuals are usually more popular than institutions, so it isn't too surprising. In a question asked by Gallup in September, large majorities didn't think either the Republicans or Democrats had made a sincere effort to find solutions acceptable to both parties, but they are still giving Obama credit for trying.
In some polls, positive views of the Democratic Party have dropped, and there is no corresponding evidence that views of the Republican Party have improved. Far more people trust the Democrats to do a better job coping with the problems the country faces over the next few years than the Republicans and that may be boosting the president.
Finally, the number of Americans identifying with the Republican Party remains very low. Gary Langer, ABC's polling analyst, looked at the figures last week for six October polls. Twenty-seven percent in Gallup's poll said they were Republicans, but all the other polls put the GOP number at around 20%. Republicans aren't happy with the president, but independents are happier with him today than they were late in the summer.
Karlyn Bowman is a senior fellow at AEI.