When Bill Clinton announced that the era of big government was over, Americans didn't believe him. Eighty-five percent told Fox News/Opinion Dynamics interviewers in January 1998 that it wasn't really over. This fall, when Texas Gov. George W. Bush (R) started questioning Vice President Al Gore's commitment to holding down the size of the federal government, many pollsters updated their questions on big government.

In late October, Gallup repeated a question the organization first asked in 1965. That year, 17 percent said big business would be the biggest threat to the country in the future, while 29 percent cited big labor and 35 percent named big government. The new numbers reveal a sea change in opinion. Twenty-two percent believe big business represents the biggest threat, 7 percent big labor, and 65 percent big government.

In the Oct. 29 to 31 CBS News/New York Times poll, 57 percent of registered voters said they would rather have a smaller government providing fewer services; however 32 percent want a larger government with more services. Eighty-one percent of Republicans, 58 percent of independents and 34 percent of Democrats stated a preference for a smaller government.

At the same time, when told that "most people think the country is doing well economically and there is currently a surplus in the government's budget," 50 percent said they favor using the surplus "to solve big problems the country hasn't been able to afford to solve before," and 38 percent said the money should be given to taxpayers whose taxes contributed to it. Fifty-seven percent of Republicans are for giving the surplus back; 65 percent of Democrats want to spend it. Independents were split, with 34 percent preferring that the surplus be given to taxpayers and 54 percent wanting it to be used to solve big problems.

The Los Angeles Times results were virtually identical to those from CBS and the New York Times: 59 percent in late September opted for a smaller government, and 26 percent a larger one. The late September-early October ABC News results were also similar: 58 percent said they want a smaller government and 30 percent desire a larger one. Both surveys revealed a gender chasm on the issue. In ABC's poll, 70 percent of men wanted a smaller government with fewer services, while this was true of only 48 percent of women.

In mid-October, when ABC asked likely voters which presidential candidate people trust to do a better job on "holding down the size of government," Bush swamped Gore, 53 to 37 percent. In a poll conducted by ABC from Oct. 22 to 24, 48 percent said Bush reflects their personal views of the role of government in society, and 44 percent said this about Gore.

In another question in the mid-October ABC poll, 47 percent said they trust Gore to provide needed services and 44 percent trust Bush. Voters were then asked which is more important to them. Thirty percent said holding down the size of government, but 58 percent said providing needed services.

When NBC News/Wall Street Journal interviewers asked which of the following would be the best approach, 62 percent said to have individuals, businesses and other institutions take more responsibility for solving America's problems; 23 percent said "to have government take more responsibility for solving America's problems."

Yankelovich Partners, polling for Time and CNN, asked likely voters whether they thought different phrases applied to Bush and, separately, Gore. On Oct. 25 and 26, 52 percent said Bush shared their views on "the size and role of the federal government." Forty-seven percent said this of Gore, but 48 percent said the opposite.

On Election Day, 33 percent of voters said that "only Bush" reflected their own personal view of the role of government, 29 percent "only Gore" did, 17 percent both and 18 percent neither. In another question, 43 percent of voters wanted government to do more to solve problems, but 52 percent said government was doing too many things better left to business and individuals.

Shoot the Pollsters?

The first poll question I've been able to find about the 2000 presidential contest was asked in 1995, when one major national pollster asked people whether they would consider voting for retired Gen. Colin Powell in 2000 if he decided not to run in 1996. Three pollsters were in the field in September and October of 1996 asking people whether they would vote for Gore or Republican Jack Kemp in the 2000 election.

Now, pollster Scott Rasmussen at Portrait of America has announced that "for the first time in history, the new president will have his approval ratings measured every day," courtesy of Rasmussen Research.

Karlyn H. Bowman is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.