Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.)

Although civil disorder remains a significant issue in Iraq, speakers at a June 10 AEI conference put this problem in context and outlined the steps toward a hopeful future for that country.

"Today, Iraq is rife with ethnic conflict, looting, and roving bands of armed street thugs," said Senator John Cornyn (R-Tex.). "Yet even this temporary disorder is preferable to the brutal and bloody rule of Saddam Hussein.

"The current unstable situation is, at least in part, an unintended byproduct of the speed and efficiency of our military forces," he continued. "Unlike other countries that we have successfully nurtured to democracy following a war, there was relatively little time to plan for the all-important aftermath."

Urging Americans and Iraqis to now focus on Iraq's reconstruction, Cornyn cited establishing security as the first goal. "We must end the looting, and restore the property rights of the Iraqi people. We cannot construct the foundation of a peaceful and just society when lawlessness still reigns in Iraq."

Cornyn said that the presence of coalition forces is the only reason ethnic and religious strife have not occurred. While foreign governance through coalition troops is not a long-term solution, it will be necessary for some time. "We can harbor no illusions: The current occupation will not, and should not, be brief," he said. "While the administration understandably wants to return Iraq to the Iraqi people as soon as possible, this well-intentioned desire will likely backfire. Iraqis still remember what happened after the Gulf War in 1991, when UN troops pulled out after encouraging a civilian uprising, only to have thousands of rebels crushed and slaughtered by Saddam. Enemies of democracy in Iraq, both inside and outside of the country, will exploit any short-lived commitment."

Cornyn suggested looking back to Germany and Japan as examples of the type of commitment required. "In Japan, the Allied Powers stayed six years and eight months. In Germany, direct military government lasted four years. Coalition forces must stay in Iraq long enough to insure that freedom is not smothered in its cradle."

America needs to help Iraq develop a government ruled by laws, not men, Cornyn said. Most importantly, America "must ensure that one brutal dictator is not replaced by another, or that Iraq becomes a theocracy where freedom of religion and equal rights for women are outlawed. Working together with the rest of the civilized world, we must insist on the establishment of a representative government based on the rule of law that affords equal rights to all Iraqi citizens."

Hassan Mneimneh, codirector of the Iraq Research and Documentation Project at Harvard University, cited the political obstacles to establishing such a government. He warned of the synergy between bin Ladenism and Saddam loyalists and stressed the need to prevent that synergy from transforming into "something concrete." While the American military can temporarily block the variety of extreme elements from assuming power, in the long run, Mneimneh, like Cornyn, saw the solution as "the emergence of some sort of Iraqi national authority with native legitimacy."

Another obstacle to the creation of a democracy is the Iraqi economy's state of disrepair. "I don't think you are going to have any viable form of democracy without having a vibrant economy under it," said Basil Al-Rahim, founder and board member of the Iraq Foundation. "You don't establish democracy just like that. To establish democracy in Iraq or any form of fair government . . . you need to put an active economic sector in place."

Optimistic about Iraq's economic prospects, Al-Rahim argued that the goal for Iraq should be to rapidly accelerate economic growth. He said that GDP per capita should grow from $1,000 to $10,000 in five years and to over $20,000 in about ten years. Citing four resources to be exploited for this goal, he said, "First, of course, oil." Second, "there are two great rivers that run through the country. . . . Third, the country has arable land. It can become agriculturally self-sufficient and, in fact, it can be a net exporter of food. And fourth, of course, you have a population with a very large professional and technical labor force. There are doctors, engineers, lawyers, bankers, etc. With these four resources, it is believed that you can achieve an economic miracle in Iraq similar to what was achieved in Germany and Japan after World War II."

Cornyn recalled Iraq's past and looked to its future. "Situated in the very cradle of civilization, Baghdad itself was once viewed as a center of learning, prosperity, and cultural activity--until that legacy was hijacked by Saddam Hussein's fascist regime. With a new government, founded on the rule of law and the basic principles of human freedom, Iraq will . . . flourish once again."