In politics, it's the challenger's job to stress the negative, and Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry has certainly been doing that this year. But this year's economy and the strong 1996 economy that President Clinton ran on in seeking a second term show remarkable similarities.

During the past year, the U.S. economy grew 4.8 percent vs. 4 percent for a similar period in 1996. One critical difference is that Clinton inherited an economy that grew 4.1 percent the year before he took office while President Bush inherited an economy that was falling into recession with a stock-market bubble that had already burst.

In 1996 and 2004, the unemployment rate hovered around 5.5 percent. In the manufacturing area, 2004 actually looks better, with job gains of 81,000 this year instead of a loss of 8,000 for the same period in 1996.

Inflation-adjusted take-home pay, known as disposable personal income, rose $1,438 a person during Clinton's first term. It has risen $1,521 so far during Bush's first term, despite the more challenging economic environment.

Of course, a large part of this is because of the Bush tax cuts that lowered the burden on a typical four-person family by more than $1,600, or $400 per person. But wages have also performed quite well in the past four years.

Since Bush took office, hourly pay for production workers has risen 34 cents after inflation. During Clinton's first term, it rose 6 cents. One reason for the wage increase is an upgrading in the quality of jobs. Using the most detailed data available from the U.S. Labor Department, the vast majority of the jobs created this year pay above-average wages. Today, there are 2.5 million more jobs filled by college graduates than when Bush came to office and an additional 850,000 jobs filled by people with some college background.

Studies of election-year economies suggest that economic performance is important to the outcome of an election. Other factors are obviously involved, but the leading political model of the economy, created by Yale University's Ray Fair, predicts Bush will win 57 percent of the two-party vote. This would be almost three percentage points higher than Clinton received eight years ago.

Lawrence B. Lindsey is a visiting fellow at AEI.