Sir, Martin Wolf offers the Indian government highly constructive advice as to what reforms it should undertake if India is to catch up with China ("What India must do to catch up with and possibly outpace China", February 15). However, he does not consider the alternate possibility that India's economic gap with China might be closed by a significant slowing in Chinese economic growth over the next decade.

Mr Wolf falls into the same trap as do many Chinese analysts of extrapolating China's past impressive economic growth indefinitely into the future. However, especially in today's atmosphere of heightened trade tensions between the US and China, should one not be asking how sustainable is China's externally oriented economic growth strategy?

The International Monetary Fund estimates that more than half of China's economic growth in 2005 was externally generated as Chinese exports continued to grow at an annual rate in excess of 30 per cent.

How reasonable is it to expect that international markets will indefinitely stay open to an ever-increasing volume of Chinese exports, especially should there be a slowing in global economic growth and if China continues to be perceived as not playing by the rules?

Before assuming that Chinese growth is destined to continue forever at its recent impressive pace, similar questions might be asked about China's excessive investment ratios as well as the sustainability of its outdated political system in an increasingly global economy.

If one is looking for another example of an erstwhile economic miracle that was extinguished by its clay feet, one need look no further than Japan.

Desmond Lachman is a resident fellow at AEI.