Five years ago, Sen. James Jeffords (Vt.) left the Republican Party and, as an independent, ushered Senate Democrats into the majority. After the 1994 Republican takeover of the House and Senate, seven Democrats switched parties padding Republican margins. With Democrats likely to gain seats in the fall, are we likely to see more party switchers? Probably not.

Research Fellow John C. Fortier

To leave the party whose ticket you have run on, whose donors you have solicited and whose membership includes your family, closest friends and staff is an act of betrayal. You are never admired by your old party. You must move on.

But despite the momentousness of the act of party switching, it has been relatively common over the past 30 years. Nineteen members have switched parties since 1976, and this is not counting a few outliers, such as Matthew Martinez, who became a Republican for the last few months of his career after losing in a Democratic primary, and Bob Smith, who left the Republicans briefly, only to return.

What do these party switchers have in common? First, almost all represented districts or states favoring the party to which they switched. Massachusetts Democratic members don’t become Republicans, and Utah Republicans don’t become Democrats. Typically, switches occur in states that are changing in party allegiance, such as in Southern states that moved into the Republican column or Northeast states moving in the other direction. The Vermont of Jeffords’s boyhood voted for Alf Landon, Wendell Wilkie and Tom Dewey over FDR but has not voted for a Republican for president in nearly 20 years. Ralph Hall’s boyhood Texas voted for Al Smith over Herbert Hoover and John Davis over Calvin Coolidge, but it has not voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1976.

Second, party switchers almost always join the majority party in Congress. And why not? Would you give up your subcommittee chairmanship to become the ranking member? In the past 30 years, only Phil Gramm (Texas), Andy Ireland (Fla.) and Bob Stump (Ariz.) in the early 1980s switched from the majority Democrats to the minority Republicans and were reelected in their new party. A few others--Michael Forbes most recently--have made more quixotic shifts to the minority but did not win reelection.

So what if Democrats get within a seat or two of the majority in the House? There will be great incentive to offer the moon to a few Republicans willing to switch. Or if Democrats take the majority, some Republicans might want to join rather than try to beat the new majority.

But the Congress of today has far fewer Republicans representing Democratic districts than in the past (and Democrats representing Republican districts). Only 17 House districts held by Republicans voted for Kerry. Only nine Republican senators represent Kerry states, and only three (Snowe, Collins and Chafee) represent states that Kerry won by more than 5 percent.

And not only are few Republicans in Democratic seats, but it is likely there will be even fewer after the election as Democrats knock off moderate Republicans. And many moderate Republicans who survive will do so with significant help from their party, making a switch less likely.

A second reason that switches are not likely is that party switching has mostly followed the partisan realignment in the South. Of the 19 switchers, 13 were conservative Southern Democrats changing to the Republican Party.

If Democrats make significant gains in the fall, they will make some attractive membership offers, but the likelihood is they will have few if any takers.

John C. Fortier is a research fellow at AEI.