With Bush at the low point of his presidency, will his attempt to find common ground with congressional Democrats bear much fruit?

Research Fellow John C. Fortier

The President’s message in the State of the Union and over the next two years is that he is still an important player in the policy process and that there are domestic issues that lend themselves to bipartisan compromise. So how will this cooperation pan out?

● Immigration. If ever a deal could be struck, it is on immigration. President Bush’s comprehensive immigration plan that pairs border security with some regularization of status for undocumented workers and a guest-worker program could garner the votes of 40 percent of the Republican Caucus and 80 percent of Democrats. There are clearly enough votes to get it done.

The greatest obstacle to immigration reform, however, is politics. On the Republican side, Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.) and other voices most against illegal immigration will charge the president of granting “amnesty” and selling out his party for a legacy achievement. What is likely to be smart politics in the long run in attracting the Hispanic vote may split the party in the next election. And remember that Tancredo and Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) are running for president on their opposition to illegal immigration. They won’t win, but they will make life difficult for McCain and other candidates. On the Democratic side, leaders may not want to hand President Bush a victory on this issue, and some Democrats worry about seeming too eager to support illegal immigrants.

• Energy Security/Climate Change. It has long been thought that there is a grand bipartisan deal on energy and the environment that would marry increased domestic oil exploration with increased energy conservation. But even a Republican-controlled Congress could not pass drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge or much else to increase oil production. But while the old deal is dead, there are hopes for a new one. President Bush’s new tone is much more sympathetic to the environment and the problem of climate change. Combine that with his emphasis on reducing dependence on foreign oil and you have an agenda dedicated to conservation. Democrats and Republicans will have big differences on how to conserve, how much to increase mileage standards, how many incentives, the role of markets, and the importance of alternative fuels, but they will agree on the big picture, conservation of oil, and this should lead to a deal.
  
  
• Health. The president’s proposal to take away tax subsidies for expensive health insurance plans and increase them for lower-priced plans looks good on paper. Economists like it because it moves away from market distortions that encourage people to seek the most expensive health insurance. In theory, it might appeal to Democrats because of its progressive redistribution of resources. Politically, however, this proposal has gone over like a lead balloon. Business, labor and many key congressional Democrats have come out strongly against it. There is little chance it will get done.
  
  
• Education. It seems like an eon ago that President Bush worked cooperatively with Rep. George Miller (D-Calif.) and Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) to pass No Child Left Behind. It is up for reauthorization this year, and despite grumbling from the educational establishment about the tyranny of too many tests, it is likely that reauthorization will occur with a few tweaks in favor of flexibility for states.

In the next two years, most of the focus will be on Iraq, the differences between Bush and Democrats over Iraq, and the emerging presidential nominees of both parties. On many issues, stalemate will be the watchword in Congress, but on conservation, education, and possibly immigration, look for some action.

John C. Fortier is a research fellow at AEI.