Research Fellow  John C. Fortier

How low can you go? A recent Gallup poll showed that only 24 percent of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing. Even fewer, 14 percent, have confidence in the institution. Some Republicans have seized on Congress's low numbers to argue that voters are generally in a foul mood toward both parties, not just President Bush and Republicans.

But this kind of logic is wishful thinking. The public may not think much of Congress, but it is leaning strongly in the Democratic direction. If this mood persists through Election Day, Republicans may be looking at a Democratic president and increased margins in both chambers.

What explains Congress's low standing? First, the public has downgraded its opinion of nearly all institutions. Only roughly 20 percent of Americans believe that America is on the right track, even fewer than in November 2006. A recent Harris poll showed that compared to 2000, the public has less confidence in the press, medicine, major companies and Congress.

More significantly, the decline in congressional approval can be attributed to Democrats' frustration that their representatives cannot change policy in Iraq. In a February Gallup poll, 44 percent of Democrats approved of the job Congress was doing. In the most recent poll, only 29 percent did so.

But where are Democrats going to go on Election Day? Some activists may push for primary challenges, as Cindy Sheehan has threatened to run against House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) if articles of impeachment against President Bush are not introduced. But it is more likely that Democrats will unite to throw Republicans out. A recent CBS poll had 61 percent of Democrats satisfied with their presidential candidates, as opposed to only 30 percent on the Republican side.

The public also prefers Democrats to control Congress as opposed to Republicans by 10 to 15 percentage points, and prefers a generic Democrat to a generic Republican in the White House by even larger margins. Even the individual presidential general election match-up numbers have slipped significantly. Not too long ago, Republicans could have claimed that while the overall atmosphere did not favor them, at least Rudy Giuliani and John McCain beat leading Democrats in head-to-head polling. Today, Rudy Giuliani is at best even and often trails both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in head-to-head polls. Mitt Romney, John McCain and Fred Thompson all trail the leading Democrats.

Clearly, the Senate landscape is favorable to Democrats. There are several vulnerable Republicans, including Norm Coleman (Minn.), Susan Collins (Maine), Gordon Smith (Ore.) and John Sununu (N.H.). And there are still potential retirements that would make other seats competitive. Add to this the fact that the wave that washed over Congress in 2006 only hit one-third of the Senate. Another third will face a similar landscape in 2008.

But with such negative numbers, Republicans should also worry about further losses in the House. It is true that many Republicans in marginal districts lost in 2006 and that some weak Democratic challengers were swept in by the tide. But the overall poor climate for Republicans is partly a self-fulfilling prophecy. It will no doubt hurt candidate recruitment. If you are a viable Republican looking to take on a Democratic incumbent, it is not hard to imagine thinking that this might not be your party's year and waiting for a better opportunity down the line.

The bad climate is also inspiring talk of "losing to win" or "fighting another day." If Democrats take the White House and keep control of Congress, 2010 will likely be a good year for the GOP, but that is a pale silver lining in a very dark cloud.

John C. Fortier is a research fellow at AEI.