Senior Fellow Kevin A. Hassett

When the economy enters recession, some regions are hit harder than others. Two things about the current episode merit especially close attention: the narrow geographic focus of the hardest times, and the uneven political distribution of the downturn.

The nearby map illustrates current economic conditions and traditional voting preferences on a state-by-state basis. Each state's color represents its partisan leaning. "Red" states tend to vote Republican. "Blue" states trend toward Democrats. "Purple" states are expected to be highly competitive in the 2008 election. I determined expected voting patterns by examining a number of different factors, including recent election results, current polling trends, and a recent paper by my American Enterprise Institute colleagues John Fortier and Tim Ryan titled "Swing States and Electoral College Strategy."

Overlaid on the states' colors are patterns that indicate whether the state is in an expansion, in a recession, or "at risk for recession," according to a recent article by Steve Cochrane of Economy.com. Large black dots represent states with expanding economies. Small black dots show contracting economies. States with horizontal lines are "at risk."

Texas, for example, is a Republican-leaning state with an expanding economy, so it is colored red with large dots. Michigan, being a swing state in recession, is purple with small dots.

The map illustrates the extent to which real-estate markets have led the downturn. California, Florida, and Nevada were among the worst real-estate markets: Home prices in all three states dropped by more than 4.5 percent over the past year, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. Major cities in these states have been hit even harder, as Los Angeles, San Diego, Miami, and Las Vegas all experienced home-price declines of between 15 and 20 percent between January 2007 and January 2008, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. Plummeting prices have discouraged building activity, which in turn has led to massive layoffs.

But elsewhere, the picture is a bit rosier, with fully 20 states continuing to expand.

To the extent that dark economic times motivate voters to seek "change" or perhaps even "change you can believe in," the chart also provides ample food for thought for political analysts. Among the nine states that are currently in recession, Florida, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin are key swing states in the November election. Among the red states, 12 of 22 are at risk of recession or in recession. The blue states are not faring any better, with 9 of 14 either at risk or in recession.

Thus, as Republicans enter the fall campaign, they can collectively add a significant economic disadvantage to their list of handicaps. It is likely not only that the economy as a whole will be in recession, but that the swing states will be sharing the misery.

Kevin A. Hassett is a senior fellow and director of economic policy studies at AEI.