Resident Fellow Dan Blumenthal

China's ascendance is one of the great economic stories of the last few decades. The country's leaders and its enterprising people have managed to bring millions out of poverty--a material and moral accomplishment that is the envy of poor countries the world over. Were China's leaders only focused on a better material life for their citizens, America should stand back, enjoy the cheap products coming from China, applaud a tremendous story of successful economic development, and, consistent with American values, hope for greater political liberalization.

But clearly China is after more. When every major power in the world was slashing its defense spending in the 1990s, China was doing the opposite. Over the past decade, it has continued its military build-up at a pace no one predicted. The result: a combination of new Chinese capabilities and new ambitions. To wit, China has built a massive new naval base on Hainan island, indicating the desire for a navy that can contest the maritime dominance of the United States and its allies. It has added scores of new submarines to its fleet and commissioned several new classes of destroyers, armed with the world's most lethal, ship-killing cruise missiles. And by the decade's end it could have up to five nuclear subs armed with nuclear tipped ballistic missiles capable of hitting most of the United States. The neighbors are noticing. India is wondering how nuclear subs able to access the Indian Ocean are relevant to "deterring Taiwan's independence," the stated driver of China's naval modernization.

The American security umbrella has allowed the region to focus on economic growth rather than military competition. The results speak for themselves: Asia is fast becoming the center of global economic growth. But China's military build-up is sparking a military competition in Asia that could distract the region from its remarkable transformation. If China succeeds in diminishing American influence, who will keep the regional peace? Who will respond to humanitarian catastrophes (e.g. the Tsunami), who will help defeat terrorists (e.g. in the Philippines), who will stem proliferation (e.g. from North Korea)? Most of the region is not betting that China will attend to the region's well-being, which is why they prefer the oftentimes irritating leadership of America to being left to the tender mercies of the Chinese Communist Party.

Dan Blumenthal is a resident fellow at AEI.