China in 2013 and beyond
Danielle Pletka, Dan Blumenthal, Phillip Swagel
January 22, 2013

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China faces tough choices that will determine its future role in the world. This was the consensus among several Asia experts who gathered at AEI on Tuesday to examine the trajectory of the globe's fastest-rising power. In his keynote address, Ambassador Frank Lavin described two major decisions China faces: market rationalism versus economic nationalism in China's economic outlook, and great-power realism versus moralistic nationalism in the country's foreign policy.

A panel then discussed whether China could continue to "have it all": stellar economic growth, an authoritarian political system, and an expansive military. Carolyn Bartholomew of the US-China Economic Security Review Commission stressed that this question drives much of the concern about China's future — can it remain an authoritarian power with substantial resources, and can it export that model abroad?

AEI's Dan Blumenthal suggested that the current situation cannot endure, but emphasized that weak and cautious leadership in Beijing would slow China's recognition of this reality. Phillip Swagel, also of AEI, stressed the limitations of China's current economic system, including its dependence on export-led growth and a serious lack of free-flowing information. Whatever choices China makes, the implications for itself, the US, and the international community will be enormous. As Ambassador Lavin concluded, China must realize that its actions are and will be more consequential than ever, and that the world is watching
--Lara Crouch

Event Description
Following China’s decennial leadership transition, daunting challenges loom. Specifically, China’s economic growth is flagging amid rising tensions over territorial disputes. What should we expect from the newly appointed Xi Jinping and other members of the new Standing Committee? How can the US preserve economic ties with China without jeopardizing US security interests?

Frank Lavin, former undersecretary of commerce for international trade, will explore these and other questions in his keynote address. A panel discussion on the implications for the US will follow, featuring Carolyn Bartholomew, member of the US-China Economic Security Review Commission and former chief of staff for Representative Nancy Pelosi, as well as AEI scholars Dan Blumenthal and Phillip Swagel, co-authors of “An Awkward Embrace: The United States and China in the 21st Century” (AEI Press, November 2012).

If you are unable to attend, we welcome you to watch the event live on this page. Full video will be posted within 24 hours.

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About the Author

 

Danielle
Pletka

  • As a long-time Senate Committee on Foreign Relation senior professional staff member for the Near East and South Asia, Danielle Pletka was the point person on Middle East, Pakistan, India and Afghanistan issues. As the vice president for foreign and defense policy studies at AEI, Pletka writes on national security matters with a focus on Iran and weapons proliferation, the Middle East, Syria, Israel and the Arab Spring. She also studies and writes about South Asia: Pakistan, India and Afghanistan.


    Pletka is the co-editor of “Dissent and Reform in the Arab World: Empowering Democrats” (AEI Press, 2008) and the co-author of “Containing and Deterring a Nuclear Iran” (AEI Press, 2011). Her most recent study, “Iranian influence in the Levant, Egypt, Iraq, and Afghanistan,” was published in May 2012. She is currently working on a follow-up report on U.S.–Iranian competitive strategies in the Middle East, to be published in the summer of 2013.


  • Phone: 202-862-5943
    Email: dpletka@aei.org

  • Assistant Info

    Name: Alexandra Della Rocchetta
    Phone: 202-862-7152
    Email: alex.dellarocchetta@aei.org
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Dan
Blumenthal

  • Dan Blumenthal is the director of Asian Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, where he focuses on East Asian security issues and Sino-American relations.  Mr. Blumenthal has both served in and advised the U.S. government on China issues for over a decade.  From 2001 to 2004, he served as senior director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia at the Department of Defense.  Additionally, he served as a commissioner on the congressionally-mandated U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission since 2006-2012, and held the position of vice chairman in 2007.  He has also served on the Academic Advisory Board of the congressional U.S.-China Working Group. Mr. Blumenthal is the co-author of "An Awkward Embrace: The United States and China in the 21st Century" (AEI Press, November 2012).


  • Phone: 202-862-5861
    Email: dblumenthal@aei.org

  • Assistant Info

    Name: Lara Crouch
    Phone: 202-862-7160
    Email: lara.crouch@aei.org
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Phillip
Swagel
  • Phillip Swagel, an economist and academic, was assistant secretary for economic policy at the Treasury Department from 2006 to 2009, where he was responsible for analysis on a wide range of economic issues, including policies relating to the financial crisis and the Troubled Asset Relief Program. He has also served as chief of staff and senior economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers and as an economist at the Federal Reserve Board and the International Monetary Fund. He is concurrently a professor of international economics at the University of Maryland's School of Public Policy.  He has previously taught at Northwestern University, the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, and Georgetown University. Mr. Swagel works on both domestic and international economic issues at AEI.  His research topics include financial markets reform, international trade policy, and the role of China in the global economy.
  • Phone: 2026874869
    Email: pswagel@aei.org
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