The Housing Bubble and the Limits of Human Knowledge

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac lost an aggregate $246 billion during the shriveling of the great American housing bubble. They lost all the profits they had made since 1971 plus another $140 billion — quite a performance. The government rushed in to rescue Fannie and Freddie’s creditors with $187 billion of taxpayers’ money, to bring their capital up to zero: this means that ordinary Americans are being taxed so that foreign and domestic bondholders get back every penny they lent Fannie and Freddie.

The reality of the government guaranty of the debt of these “government-sponsored enterprises” (GSE) has thereby been unambiguously demonstrated. Senior government officials previously denied that the government was on the hook for Fannie and Freddie (presumably thinking that their denial would never be tested by events — a bad theory).

What financial shape were Fannie and Freddie in as the crisis proceeded? How bad would the effects of the shriveling bubble be? How much can you trust the word of government officials? How much about the financial future can central bankers or anybody know? Consider the lessons of the following 10 quotations:

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About the Author

 

Alex J.
Pollock
  • Alex Pollock joined AEI in 2004 after thirty-five years in banking. He was president and chief executive officer of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago from 1991 to 2004. He is the author of numerous articles on financial systems and the organizer of the “Deflating Bubble” series of AEI conferences. In 2007, he developed a one-page mortgage form to help borrowers understand their mortgage obligations. At AEI, he focuses on financial policy issues, including housing finance, government-sponsored enterprises, retirement finance, corporate governance, accounting standards, and the banking system. He is the lead director of CME Group, a director of Great Lakes Higher Education Corporation and the International Union for Housing Finance, and chairman of the board of the Great Books Foundation.

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