Responding to the Recession: The Challenge for Unemployment Insurance

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By any measure, the U.S. labor market is in poor health, a condition that is not likely to immediately improve. In early February, Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke cautioned that ‘‘with output growth likely to be moderate for a while and with employers reportedly still reluctant to add to their payrolls, it will be several years before the unemployment rate has returned to a more normal level.’’1 Ongoing high unemployment is placing an unsustainable strain on the unemployment insurance (UI) system. Many states already face insolvent UI trust funds and mounting debt. Significant tax increases will be required to shore up the UI system. To address the UI budget woes, President Obama proposes in his fiscal 2012 budget a two-year forgiveness of interest and penalties for states and employers, followed by a dramatic increase in the minimum unemployment tax base from $7,000 to $15,000 in 2014 (indexed by wage growth after 2014).2 The latter policy would have a direct effect on the 35 states that have a UI tax base less than $15,000. This article provides an overview of the UI program, a description of the impact of the recession, an assessment of state preparedness pre-recession, and a brief analysis of Obama’s proposal.

Alex Brill is a research fellow at AEI.

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About the Author

 

Alex
Brill
  • Alex Brill is a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where he studies the impact of tax policy on the US economy as well as the fiscal, economic, and political consequences of tax, budget, health care, retirement security, and trade policies. He also works on health care reform, pharmaceutical spending and drug innovation, and unemployment insurance reform. Brill is the author of a pro-growth proposal to reduce the corporate tax rate to 25 percent, and “The Real Tax Burden: More than Dollars and Cents” (2011), coauthored with Alan D. Viard. He has testified numerous times before Congress on tax policy, labor markets and unemployment insurance, Social Security reform, fiscal stimulus, the manufacturing sector, and biologic drug competition.

    Before joining AEI, Brill served as the policy director and chief economist of the House Ways and Means Committee. Previously, he served on the staff of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. He has also served on the staff of the President's Fiscal Commission (Simpson-Bowles) and the Republican Platform Committee (2008).

    Brill has an M.A. in mathematical finance from Boston University and a B.A. in economics from Tufts University.

  • Phone: 202-862-5931
    Email: alex.brill@aei.org
  • Assistant Info

    Name: Brittany Pineros
    Phone: 202-862-5926
    Email: brittany.pineros@aei.org

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