Will Greece destroy the Eurozone?

A view of the crowd of Greek protests on June 13, 2011at the Parliament square in Athens.

Article Highlights

  • The euro may survive, but in a form that excludes troubled countries

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  • Will Greece destroy the Euro zone? Desmond Lachman weighs in @nytimes

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  • How will Portugal, Ireland, and Spain be saved from Greece's decline?

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Less than a week after European leaders put a bow on their debt-restructuring plan for Greece, the nation's internal politics have devolved. The prime minister's ruling party is fraying over his call for a referendum on the E.U. debt deal. On November 1, The New York Times asked six experts, "Will the collapse of the Greek government destroy the euro zone?" AEI's Desmond Lachman responded:

Mark Twain famously observed that while history might not repeat itself, it often rhymes. As if to bear him out, economic and political developments today in Greece are bearing an uncanny resemblance to those in Argentina in late 2001. Those developments led to Argentina’s disorderly default and ignominious exit from its supposedly immutable U.S. dollar exchange rate peg in early 2002.

"The euro might survive, but in a form that excludes the troubled countries in the European periphery."--Desmond Lachman

The euro might survive, but in a form that excludes the troubled countries in the European periphery. Mr. Papandreou’s desperate gamble to now call a referendum has to be seen against the backdrop of a Greek economy in virtual free-fall under the weight of I.M.F.-imposed austerity and a country bordering on ungovernability. His highly risky gambit will almost certainly lead to the fall of the Papandreou government, which will compound Greece’s already chronic economic and political woes. If Argentina’s experience is any guide, economic and political collapse will render it all but impossible for Greece to avoid a disorderly default and, in time, a euro exit.

For over a year now, the European Central Bank has been warning that a Greek default would trigger contagion to the rest of the European periphery, including most importantly Spain and Italy. The increase in Italian bond yields to record levels over the past few days — despite E.C.B. intervention and despite the creation of a supposed firewall at the recent European summit — does not augur well for Europe’s economic outlook. This will make it all the more difficult for countries in Europe’s periphery to grow their way out of their chronic debt problems.

Given the enormous political and economic stakes involved, one has to expect a huge effort by the European political elite to preserve the highly successful European experiment of the past 60 years. However, considering the increasing visceral antipathy of European electorates to bailing out the periphery, it is difficult to see how Portugal, Ireland and Spain can be saved from Greece’s path to default. It would seem that the best for which one can hope is the survival of the euro but in a form that excludes the troubled countries in the European periphery.

Desmond Lachman is a resident fellow at AEI

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About the Author

 

Desmond
Lachman
  • Desmond Lachman joined AEI after serving as a managing director and chief emerging market economic strategist at Salomon Smith Barney. He previously served as deputy director in the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Policy Development and Review Department and was active in staff formulation of IMF policies. Mr. Lachman has written extensively on the global economic crisis, the U.S. housing market bust, the U.S. dollar, and the strains in the euro area. At AEI, Mr. Lachman is focused on the global macroeconomy, global currency issues, and the multilateral lending agencies.
  • Phone: 202-862-5844
    Email: dlachman@aei.org
  • Assistant Info

    Name: Emma Bennett
    Phone: 202.862.5862
    Email: emma.bennett@aei.org

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