The Fed doubles down

Reuters

Traders work as a television screen shows U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Sept. 13, 2012.

Article Highlights

  • Thursday’s FOMC statement amounts to an extraordinary upgrade in the intensity of Fed efforts to ignite growth.

    Tweet This

  • .@AEI’s John Makin: There are 3 extraordinary things about the latest FOMC statement.

    Tweet This

  • The Fed has taken a bold step by hinting strongly that it will be slow to tighten once the economy recovers.

    Tweet This

The FOMC statement released Thursday amounts to an extraordinary upgrade in the intensity of the Fed’s effort to ignite higher growth and reduce unemployment.  The new “conditional” approach — call it CA — to monetary policy aims at enabling the Fed to affect real variables like the level of unemployment by pre committing it to further action if goals are not met and pre committing it to maintain a highly accommodative policy stance (zero interest rates and QE) even after the economy starts to improve.

The new approach has been hinted at for years in academic papers presented at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Conference and elsewhere. The new approach was forcefully expressed at this year’s conference in a paper presented by Michael Woodford, a former Princeton colleague of Chairman Bernanke, and the September 13 FOMC statement clearly reflects to influence of Woodford’s analysis. See “Methods of Policy Accommodation at the Interest-Rate Lower Bound” presented at the Jackson Hole Symposium August 31-September 1, 2012.

At first blush, the FOMC statement looks like just another round of QE when it calls for additional purchases of mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month while continuing with existing operation twist measures aimed at push down long term interest rates. But this time the commitment to continue QE in some form is open ended. The FOMC commits to closely monitoring economic and financial conditions and goes on to make an extraordinary open-ended commitment: “If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially. The committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement it achieved in a context of price stability.”

There are three extraordinary things about this statement. First, the Fed is saying that its asset purchasing commitment and the use of “other policy tools” is open ended until the outlook for the labor market improves substantially. Second, no allowance is made for the possibility of failure, despite the fact that extensive asset purchases have so far not produced a substantial improvement in the outlook for labor markets. There is an assumption that there is some level of asset buying or use of other tools that will produce substantial improvement in the labor market. Third, there is ambiguity about the Fed’s response to a possible rise in inflation. Is  the labor market to improve substantially without a sharp increase in inflation?  Or is the suggestion that if inflation picks up, asset buying and other measures will stop? The answer is not clear from the opaque reference to “a context of price stability.”

There is more. The Fed also expects that the highly accommodative stance of monetary policy  will be warranted for another three years or more — at least through mid 2015 — because it expects that such a stance should be maintained for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens. This is a bold commitment since once again the risk of allowing inflation momentum to rise in a recovering economy is essentially ignored. If the economy does pick up that will be good news for banks because the yield curve should steepen rapidly as real interest rates and expected inflation rise and push up longer term rates while the Fed continues to hold down short term rates. If the Fed continues to try to hold down long term rates while the economy is recovering, the risk of a sharp rise in inflation is enhanced.

The Fed has taken a bold step by hinting strongly that it will be slow to tighten once the economy recovers and by betting that tolerating signs of higher inflation for a bit longer won’t require a sharp reversal of accommodation to avoid  embedding higher inflation expectations into nominal contracts including interest rates and wages. We are looking at “whatever it takes” monetary policy that may result in a much weaker dollar and higher gold and stock prices as the U.S. exports deflation (stronger foreign currencies) into a world of weak demand growth , including a slowing Chinese economy.  Whatever the outcome, the range of possibilities is much greater than it was before the Fed’s bold statement.

Also Visit
AEIdeas Blog The American Magazine
About the Author

 

John H.
Makin
  • John H. Makin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) where he studies the US economy, monetary policy, financial markets, corporate taxation and banking. He also studies and writes frequently about Japanese, Chinese and European economic issues.

    Makin has served as a consultant to the US Treasury Department, the Congressional Budget Office, and the International Monetary Fund. He spent twenty years on Wall Street as the chief economist, and later as a principal of Caxton Associates a trading and investment firm. Earlier, Makin taught economics at various universities including the University of Virginia. He has also been a scholar at the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, the Federal Bank of Chicago, and the National Bureau of Economic Research. A prolific writer, Makin is the author of numerous books and articles on financial, monetary, and fiscal policy. Makin also writes AEI's monthly Economic Outlook which pairs insightful research with current economic topics.

    Makin received his doctorate and master’s degree in economics from University of Chicago, and bachelor’s degree in economics from Trinity College.


    Follow John Makin on Twitter.

  • Phone: 202-862-5828
    Email: jmakin@aei.org
  • Assistant Info

    Name: Brittany Pineros
    Phone: 202-862-5926
    Email: brittany.pineros@aei.org

What's new on AEI

image The Census Bureau and Obamacare: Dumb decision? Yes. Conspiracy? No.
image A 'three-state solution' for Middle East peace
image Give the CBO long-range tools
image The coming collapse of India's communists
AEI on Facebook
Events Calendar
  • 14
    MON
  • 15
    TUE
  • 16
    WED
  • 17
    THU
  • 18
    FRI
Wednesday, April 16, 2014 | 10:00 a.m. – 11:00 a.m.
Calling treason by its name: A conversation with Liam Fox

Join us at AEI as the Right Honorable Liam Fox sits down with Marc Thiessen to discuss and debate whether America’s intelligence agencies have infringed on the personal privacy of US citizens.

Thursday, April 17, 2014 | 4:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m.
The curmudgeon's guide to getting ahead

How can young people succeed in workplaces dominated by curmudgeons who are judging their every move? At this AEI book event, bestselling author and social scientist Charles Murray will offer indispensable advice for navigating the workplace, getting ahead, and living a fulfilling life.

Event Registration is Closed
No events scheduled this day.
No events scheduled this day.
No events scheduled this day.
No events scheduled today.
No events scheduled this day.
No events scheduled this day.