Think again about that 'good' jobs report

Article Highlights

  • The household survey portrays a September that was booming, far more so than could be true given the other indicators.

    Tweet This

  • The 114,000 jobs created in September are well below the average for this year. The economy is decelerating this fall.

    Tweet This

  • The media emphasized establishment #'s under President Bush. For President Obama expect a household lovefest.

    Tweet This

Today’s jobs report is a classic. The report, of course, reveals the results of two surveys, one of households, one of establishments. The professional economists and the press usually emphasize the establishment survey because it is viewed as less volatile. The establishment survey was terrible. The 114,000 number of jobs created on net in September is well below the average for this year (146,000) and the average for last year (153,000). This is wholly consistent with the story that the economy is decelerating sharply as we head into the fall.

The household survey, on the other hand, portrays a September that was booming, far more so than could possibly be true given the other indicators. According to it, the unemployment rate dropped to 7.8 percent, with total employment jumping by a whopping 873,000. I wish it were true, but it will likely be a blip when we have a few more months of data.

Back when President Bush presided over a jobless recovery, the household survey tended to show better news. At the time, every media organization carefully emphasized the establishment numbers, and warned that the household numbers are suspect. That, of course, is what happens when a Republican is in office. For President Obama, you can expect a household survey lovefest. The AP story that went up at 8:33, of course, emphasized the household survey, even adding, “The decline could help Obama, who is coming off a disappointing debate against Mitt Romney.” Get ready for more of the same.

Also Visit
AEIdeas Blog The American Magazine
About the Author

 

Kevin A.
Hassett

  • Kevin A. Hassett is the John G. Searle Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). He is also a resident scholar and AEI's director of economic policy studies.


    Before joining AEI, Hassett was a senior economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and an associate professor of economics and finance at Columbia (University) Business School. He served as a policy consultant to the US Department of the Treasury during the George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton administrations.


    Hassett has also been an economic adviser to presidential candidates since 2000, when he became the chief economic adviser to Senator John McCain during that year's presidential primaries. He served as an economic adviser to the George W. Bush 2004 presidential campaign, a senior economic adviser to the McCain 2008 presidential campaign, and an economic adviser to the Mitt Romney 2012 presidential campaign.


    Hassett is the author or editor of many books, among them "Rethinking Competitiveness" (2012), "Toward Fundamental Tax Reform" (2005), "Bubbleology: The New Science of Stock Market Winners and Losers" (2002), and "Inequality and Tax Policy" (2001). He is also a columnist for National Review and has written for Bloomberg.


    Hassett frequently appears on Bloomberg radio and TV, CNBC, CNN, Fox News Channel, NPR, and "PBS NewsHour," among others. He is also often quoted by, and his opinion pieces have been published in, the Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post.


    Hassett has a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and a B.A. in economics from Swarthmore College.




  • Phone: 202-862-7157
    Email: khassett@aei.org
  • Assistant Info

    Name: Emma Bennett
    Phone: 202-862-5862
    Email: emma.bennett@aei.org

What's new on AEI

image The Pentagon’s illusion of choice: Hagel’s 2 options are really 1
image Wild about Larry
image Primary care as affordable luxury
image Solving the chicken-or-egg job problem
AEI on Facebook
Events Calendar
  • 29
    MON
  • 30
    TUE
  • 31
    WED
  • 01
    THU
  • 02
    FRI
Monday, July 29, 2013 | 10:30 a.m. – 11:30 a.m.
Squaring the circle: General Raymond T. Odierno on American military strategy in a time of declining resources

AEI’s Marilyn Ware Center for Security Studies will host General Raymond Odierno, chief of staff of the US Army, for the second installment of a series of four events with each member of the Joint Chiefs.

Tuesday, July 30, 2013 | 12:00 p.m. – 1:15 p.m.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership and 21st Century Trade Agreements

Please join AEI for a briefing on the TPP and the current trade agenda from 12:00 – 1:15 on Tuesday, July 30th in 106 Dirksen Senate Office Building.

Thursday, August 01, 2013 | 8:10 a.m. – 1:30 p.m.
International conference on collateral risk: Moderating housing cycles and their systemic impact

Experts from the US, Europe, Canada, and Asia will address efforts to moderate housing cycles using countercyclical lending policies.

No events scheduled this day.
No events scheduled this day.
No events scheduled today.
No events scheduled this day.
No events scheduled this day.