Resident Scholar Michael Auslin

For Japan-watchers, the month since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's Liberal Democratic Party was trounced at the polls has been a feast of political inside baseball. From musings on when he'd step down to the effects on Tokyo's support for the U.S.-led war on terrorism, analysis of Japanese politics lately has approached the fervor of the old Kremlinology.

Now the waters have cleared, if only a bit. Early this week, Abe named his new cabinet, something a number a pundits thought he'd never get a chance to do. Based on the line-up Abe's put together, the early retirement crowd is likely to be proven wrong about tenure, but not necessarily about policy.

Abe has put together what might best be described as "a unity cabinet," comprising the heavyweights and "wise men" of the LDP. Most prominent are the returning foreign minister, Nobutaka Machimura, who also heads the intra-party faction to which Abe belongs; Defense Minister Masahiko Komura, who previously served as foreign minister and is known for his hard-line on North Korea; Justice Minister Kunio Hatoyama, scion of one of Japan's most enduring political dynasties; and Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga, who has twice served as defense minister.

Japanologists will get lots of mileage trying to divine the meaning of the new appointments. First, what was Abe trying to do? Clearly stung by charges of lack of leadership, incompetence, and passivity, he looked for and got the party heavyweights on board. This is an attempt to refurbish one of his early perceived strengths - his competence. Abe never tried to be as flashy as Junichiro Koizumi, rather, he stressed his bureaucratic strengths. This turned out to haunt him as scandal after scandal eroded his image. The new appointees are clearly regarded as experienced politicians.

Second, as a political tactic, the appointments are designed to show party unity for Abe. Abe has presented the public with the LDP stamp of approval, though how much that is worth remains to be seen. At least it should be harder to throw Abe overboard if the LDP's elders are a part of his cabinet. Failure on his part will tar each of them, so Abe's tactic is one of keeping one's friends close and one's enemies closer.

Thirdly, Abe is tactically positioning himself to fight his biggest political battle, extension of the Anti-Terrorism Special Measures Law. Japan's Constitution forbids permanent military operations outside of Japanese territorial waters, and it was this law that allowed Tokyo to send naval forces to the Indian Ocean to refuel coalition ships operating off Afghanistan. The law expires on October 31, and the opposition leader Ichiro Ozawa of the Democratic Party of Japan, architect of the electoral victory over Abe last month, has vowed to block passage of an extension or new law, thus forcing Tokyo to recall its ships. With new Foreign Minister Machimura and Defense Minister Komura, Abe has brought on board two of the strongest proponents of continued involvement in anti-terrorism activities, thus giving him a better chance of making the case why continued Japanese participation is important.

Fourthly, and perhaps most importantly, Abe's foreign policy picks demonstrate his commitment to the more visible diplomatic outreach that has become his signature policy. Indeed, the weekend before reshuffling the cabinet, Abe made a swing through Asia, visiting India, Indonesia and Malaysia. In India, Abe made yet another pitch for closer relations among Asia's democracies, while simultaneously committing to a free trade agreement with Asean.

The clear message from Abe is that he's serious about continuing to govern and serious about sticking to the goals he articulated early in his term. The clear question is whether any of this will make a difference.

Abe's cabinet choices can just as easily hinder him as help. By resorting to calling in the party big shots, Abe may in fact come across as insubstantial, unable to govern without grownups around him. This would simply reinforce the popular image of Abe as an ambitious yet unprepared politician.

Abe has been an enigma: a seemingly bold strategist who grievously wounded himself with ill-considered remarks on comfort women and surrounded himself with ministers not fit for their jobs. Now he has wrestled a second chance out of electoral ashes. The first moves of his attempt at rehabilitation seem to show a recognition of his mistakes with a renewed commitment to his goals. But they will come to naught if he fails to answer the public's clear demands for continued reform and competent leadership.

Michael Auslin is a resident scholar at AEI.