Open Source Intelligence
- Despite grand gestures, little is likely to change on the ground with respect to Taliban operations in #Pakistan
- While striking a peace deal with the Pakistani government may reduce attacks in the country, the TTP may shift its focus to Afghanistan
- The Pakistani government is likely to continue attempting to divide and conquer the TPP and peel off as many factions as it can
News reports in the beginning of January rang alarm bells about a ground-breaking agreement between militant groups in northwest Pakistan initiated by Afghan Taliban chief Mullah Omar, brokered by the Haqqani Network, and encouraged by the Pakistani government. These reports suggested that the Taliban has formed a united front that has pledged to stop fighting amongst itself, desist from attacks on innocents and the practice of kidnapping-for-ransom, end attacks on the Pakistani state and instead focus all its efforts on fighting coalition forces in Afghanistan. The real import of this agreement, however, is far from clear. Despite grand announcements, gestures, and claims of reconciliation among warring Taliban factions, little is likely to change on the ground with respect to Taliban operations in Pakistan, and it is too soon to assess what effect, if any, the agreement will have on U.S. operations in Afghanistan.
Please read the full text at the Critical Threats Project
Reza Jan is an analyst for the Critical Threats Project