America, Syria, and the world
How is President Obama's turnaround on Syria playing abroad? Seven views from around the globe

Reuters

US Secretary of State John Kerry (R), British Foreign Secretary William Hague (L) and French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius attend a news conference after a meeting on Syria conflict at the Quai d'Orsay ministry in Paris September 16, 2013.

Article Highlights

  • The Kremlin's aim in the Syrian conflict has been to strengthen its domestic legitimacy.

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  • The overarching imperative of Mr. Putin's foreign policy has been to preclude regime change.

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  • Internationally, it has established Mr. Putin as a kind of go-to broker.

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The Wall Street Journal posed a question to seven foreign policy experts regarding the international complications surrounding the events in Syria. The following is AEI scholar Leon Aron's response to the question: How is President Obama's turnaround on Syria playing abroad?

From the outset, the Kremlin's aim in the Syrian conflict has been to strengthen its domestic legitimacy and to bolster its international repute by "standing up to the United States." This comes at a time when the regime's popularity is sagging under the weight of corruption, the economy is bordering on recession, trust in Vladimir Putin is plummeting, and there is suddenly a major political challenge from the charismatic (and vehemently anti-Putin) lawyer Alexei Navalny, who garnered close to a third of the votes in Moscow's mayoral elections last Sunday.

The overarching imperative of Mr. Putin's foreign policy has been to preclude regime change—in Russia or anywhere else. This goal acquires particular urgency when a threat to an authoritarian regime occurs on former Soviet territory, which Russia considers its sphere of influence, or among Soviet or Russian client states.

In this context, President Obama's speech and the U.S. policy that seems to be emerging from it can only be interpreted by Mr. Putin as exceeding his most optimistic hopes.
 
Russia's efforts to resolve the Syria chemical-weapons crisis put the White House in an awkward spot, says WSJ's Carol E. Lee. The diplomacy delays any military strikes and places Vladimir Putin in the driver's seat, but also allows Obama to say he is pursuing all options.

Domestically, this turn of events has bolstered Mr. Putin's image as someone who not only has unflinchingly confronted the U.S.—still the nation most feared and respected by Russians—but forced it to change its course. Internationally, it has established Mr. Putin as a kind of go-to broker who has scuttled a seemingly imminent military strike by the U.S.

Most importantly, from Moscow's perspective, Mr. Obama's move has delayed or perhaps eliminated what Russia sees as the worst possible outcome: regime change in a faithful major client in a geostrategically crucial region. Whether with vodka or Champagne, they ought to be celebrating in the Kremlin.

—Mr. Aron is the director of Russian studies at the American Enterprise Institute.

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About the Author

 

Leon
Aron
  • Leon Aron is Resident Scholar and Director of Russian Studies at the American Enterprise Institute. He is the author of three books and over 300 articles and essays. Since 1999, he has written Russian Outlook, a quarterly essay on economic, political, social and cultural aspects of Russia’s post-Soviet transition, published by the Institute. He is the author of the first full-scale scholarly biography of Boris Yeltsin, Yeltsin: A Revolutionary Life (St. Martin’s Press, 2000); Russia’s Revolution: Essays 1989-2006 (AEI Press, 2007); and, most recently, Roads to the Temple: Memory, Truth, Ideas and Ideals in the Making of the Russian Revolution, 1987-1991 (Yale University Press, 2012).


    Dr. Aron earned his Ph.D. from Columbia University, has taught a graduate seminar at Georgetown University, and was awarded the Peace Fellowship at the U.S. Institute of Peace. He has co-edited and contributed the opening chapter to The Emergence of Russian Foreign Policy, published by the U.S. Institute of Peace in 1994 and contributed an opening chapter to The New Russian Foreign Policy (Council on Foreign Relations, 1998).


    Dr. Aron has contributed numerous essays and articles to newspapers andmagazines, including the Washington Post, the New York Times, theWall Street Journal Foreign Policy, The NewRepublic, Weekly Standard, Commentary, New York Times Book Review, the TimesLiterary Supplement. A frequent guest of television and radio talkshows, he has commented on Russian affairs for, among others, 60 Minutes,The Newshour with Jim Lehrer, Charlie Rose, CNN International,C-Span, and National Public Radio’s “All Things Considered” and “Talk of theNation.”


    From 1990 to 2004, he was a permanent discussant at the Voice of America’s radio and television show Gliadya iz Ameriki (“Looking from America”), which was broadcast to Russia every week.


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  • Phone: 202-862-5898
    Email: laron@aei.org
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