Iranian plot to assassinate Saudi Arabian ambassador on US soil must force Obama to change policy

Marco Castro/UN Photo

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, President of the Republic Islamic Republic of Iran, addresses the general debate of the sixty-sixth session of the General Assembly.

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Now that the United States has implicated the Islamic Republic of Iran in a plot to attack targets in Washington, the Obama administration must determine how to respond.

President Obama made outreach to Iran the center piece of his foreign policy.

"Diplomacy must be based on reality, not on wishful thinking." -- Michael Rubin

"We will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist," he declared at his inauguration.

Twice he wrote letters to Iran's Supreme Leader and, even after getting swatted down twice, the White House held out hope.

While the Iranian plot on America should end that hope, diplomats never say never.

Proponents of dialogue will argue that there is no evidence that the Iranian government was aware of the plot, and that the Revolutionary Guards' elite Qods Force was a rogue operator.

The Iranian government thrives on plausible deniability, but no longer should the White House allow Tehran to get away with it.

The Supreme Leader is a dictator, but unlike Saddam Hussein or Kim Jong-il, he does not give orders as much as he wields ultimate veto power.

He will turn off any plot he disapproves of, and only allow those for which he approves to move forward.

For American intelligence analysts, this means there will never be a smoking gun linking terrorism to Iran's top cleric.

Past behavior, however, sheds light on the present.

While diplomats have tried to dismiss past Iranian terrorism as the result of rogue agents, Iran's own promotion record suggests differently.

In 1989, Iranian gunmen mowed down a Kurdish dissident in Vienna. The ringleader returned to Tehran, where he received a promotion and became a general in the Qods Force.

In 1994, terrorists bombed the Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, killing 85. The leader of that plot is Iran's defense minister today.

The opposite is also true: When an elite revolutionary squad kidnapped the Syrian ambassador without permission, it was the group's leader who faced the firing squad, not the Syrian.

Diplomacy must be based on reality, not on wishful thinking.

The terror plot was no rogue action. Obama may hold an olive branch, but the White House must recognize the Iranian regime's fist holds only blood.

The time for talk has ended.

Michael Rubin is a resident scholar at AEI.

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About the Author

 

Michael
Rubin


  • Michael Rubin is a former Pentagon official whose major research areas are the Middle East, Turkey, Iran and diplomacy. Rubin instructs senior military officers deploying to the Middle East and Afghanistan on regional politics, and teaches classes regarding Iran, terrorism, and Arab politics on board deploying U.S. aircraft carriers. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, both pre- and post-war Iraq, and spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. His newest book, Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engagement examines a half century of U.S. diplomacy with rogue regimes and terrorist groups.


    Follow Michael Rubin on Twitter.


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