Double down on bipartisanship!

White House

President Barack Obama delivers the State of the Union address in the House Chamber at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., Jan. 24, 2012.

Article Highlights

  • Second-term presidents face even more obduracy from the opposition, bitter at a second loss of the big prize

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  • Even with Democratic houses, #Obama will not be free to build on his first two years of policy in any major way

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  • There is bipartisan consensus for broadening the #tax base, and maybe for replacing the #payroll tax with a #carbon tax

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Let’s start with the stark reality: Second presidential terms rarely result in major accomplishments. Presidents have few new ideas that have not been posed in their first two years, and already met with success or failure. They are lame ducks facing increasing pressure from their own bases, who are convinced that with the excuse of reelection gone, they can now fulfill their wish lists; when it doesn’t work that way, the bases become angry and disappointed. And second-term presidents face even more obduracy from the opposition, bitter at a second loss of the big prize. Occasionally, though, a president is able to accomplish a major policy advance in his second term. The last, best example was Ronald Reagan’s bipartisan tax reform of 1986—and that is exactly the model Obama should follow.

Any achievements in tax reform won’t be easy; much, of course, depends on what happens in the congressional elections. The Republican majority in the House is certain to be more conservative in the 113th Congress than it is in the 112th—hard as that is to believe. The primary defeat two weeks ago of Jean Schmidt, a hard-line conservative, by a Tea Party insurgent, will send a message to a raft of House Republicans: Beware of a challenge from your right. This will push them from hard-right to super-hard-right. For John Boehner, it will be a nightmare, with no ability on his part to stray from the lunatic fringe without being emasculated by his caucus. That means Obama can forget any chance that he will have a negotiating partner in the Speaker.

And even if one or both houses are in the hands of Democrats, it will not leave Obama free to build on his first two years of strikingly significant policy enactments in any major way. A narrow Democratic majority in the House will immediately be fearful of the usual backlash that occurs in sixth year midterm elections, and some of the new members will be antsy about stepping out with big change. That means the president’s main goal will be to preserve his first-term accomplishments, to keep the Affordable Care Act and Dodd-Frank on track as much as possible, and to make their implementation less rocky.

"Ronald Reagan’s bipartisan tax reform of 1986... is exactly the model Obama should follow." -- Norman Ornstein

But this doesn’t mean the president should avoid any thoughts of shooting higher. Not all Senate Republicans will necessarily continue to be Stepford Senators for Mitch McConnell. Lamar Alexander decided to leave the Senate GOP leadership in major part to free himself up to be a dealmaker and problem-solver. He could be joined by colleagues like Bob Corker, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, a reelected Richard Lugar facing his last term, and Scott Brown (if he survives the election), along with conservatives like Mike Crapo, Saxby Chambliss, and Lindsey Graham (on occasion at least) to form a bipartisan coalition to pass some meaningful bipartisan policies—like tax reform and deficit reduction.

What would that look like? There is bipartisan consensus for reducing rates and broadening the tax base, and there might be an opening for something bolder—replacing the payroll tax with a carbon tax, for example, or replacing a major portion of the income tax with a consumption tax. At the same time, Obama will have both an opportunity and a huge crunch point in December—a perfect storm where the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, the expiration of the payroll tax cut, the first big hit with sequesters, and likely the debt ceiling being reached all come together. Inaction would mean a huge blow to GDP and probably a serious new recession. A negotiation out of it could involve a longer term deficit reduction plan. Any combination of the above, unlikely but far from implausible, would break the mold of typical second terms.

Norman Ornstein is a resident scholar at AEI.

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About the Author

 

Norman J.
Ornstein
  • Norman Ornstein is a long-time observer of Congress and politics. He is a contributing editor and columnist for National Journal and The Atlantic and is an election eve analyst for BBC News. He served as codirector of the AEI-Brookings Election Reform Project and participates in AEI's Election Watch series. He also served as a senior counselor to the Continuity of Government Commission. Mr. Ornstein led a working group of scholars and practitioners that helped shape the law, known as McCain-Feingold, that reformed the campaign financing system. He was elected as a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2004. His many books include The Permanent Campaign and Its Future (AEI Press, 2000); The Broken Branch: How Congress Is Failing America and How to Get It Back on Track, with Thomas E. Mann (Oxford University Press, 2006, named by the Washington Post one of the best books of 2006 and called by The Economist "a classic"); and, most recently, the New York Times bestseller, It's Even Worse Than It Looks: How the American Constitutional System Collided With the New Politics of Extremism, also with Tom Mann, published in May 2012 by Basic Books. It was named as one of 2012's best books on pollitics by The New Yorker and one of the best books of the year by the Washington Post.
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