Polls: Pres. Obama's Standing, Debates' Impact, Biden v. Ryan, & More!
Karlyn Bowman, Andrew Rugg, Jennifer K. Marsico | How close is this race, really? AEI Political Report, September 2012
September 14, 2012

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In the September American Enterprise Institute (AEI) Political Report, public opinion expert Karlyn Bowman and researchers Andrew Rugg and Jennifer Marsico find that:

  • Obama's reelection position weaker: Barack Obama is in a weaker position than most of his predecessors seeking re-election on some important indicators at this point in the campaign. Only 23 percent of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the country, much lower than 41 percent in September 2004 (George W. Bush) and 41 percent in 1996 (Clinton).
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  • Do debates matter? According to a Gallup analyst, there are "few instances in which the debates may have had a substantive impact on election outcomes. The two exceptions are 1960 and 2000, both very close elections in which even small changes could have determined who won." It remains to be seen whether the debates have an impact in 2012.
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  • Biden v. Ryan: Initial reactions to Joe Biden (34%) were more favorable than early reactions to Paul Ryan (25%) in a Gallup poll. According to ABC/Washington Post polls, a substantial majority said that the choice made no difference (67% for Ryan, 66% for Biden).

The report also looks at attitudes on educational attainment, Social Security, abortion, and more. Click here to read the full report.

Karlyn Bowman is an senior fellow at AEI and is available for interviews. She can be reached at kbowman@aei.org or through andrew.rugg@aei.org or 202.862.5917.

For additional help, other media inquiries, or to reserve AEI's in-house TV studio or ISDN facilities, please contact:

TV Jesse Blumenthal jesse.blumenthal@aei.org / 202.862.4870

Radio Michael Pratt michael.pratt@aei.org / 202.862.5823

Print or Web Jesse Blumenthal jesse@aei.org / 202.862.4870, Michael Pratt at michael.pratt@aei.org / 202.862.5823, or Veronique Rodman at vrodman@aei.org / 202.862.4871

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About the Author

 

Karlyn
Bowman
  • Karlyn Bowman compiles and analyzes American public opinion using available polling data on a variety of subjects, including the economy, taxes, the state of workers in America, environment and global warming, attitudes about homosexuality and gay marriage, NAFTA and free trade, the war in Iraq, and women's attitudes. In addition, Ms. Bowman has studied and spoken about the evolution of American politics because of key demographic and geographic changes. She has often lectured on the role of think tanks in the United States and writes a weekly column for Forbes.com.
  • Phone: 2028625910
    Email: kbowman@aei.org

  • Assistant Info

    Name: Andrew Rugg
    Phone: 2028625917
    Email: andrew.rugg@aei.org
Show More | See Full Profile

 

Andrew
Rugg
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Jennifer K.
Marsico

  • Jennifer K. Marsico is a senior research associate at AEI, working in the Political Corner. Her research focuses on elections and election reform, as well as government continuity issues. She is a visiting fellow at the Independent Women's Forum. She is also a contributor to the AEIdeas blog, and has also written for many outside print and online publications, including The Wall Street Journal, Chicago Tribune, and Roll Call. Ms. Marsico serves as assistant director of the AEI-Brookings Continuity of Government Commission, and has contributed to recent studies on Supreme Court continuity, voter registration modernization, and civic participation in the digital age.

  • Phone: 202.862.5899
    Email: jennifer.marsico@aei.org
Show More | See Full Profile

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