Mitt Romney presidential campaign
Article Highlights
- Why is @mittromney ramping up in Iowa?
- If a quarter of Romney’s support in NH melts away as Gingrich surges, will he lose his firewall in Iowa?
- .@mittromney looks to be first Republican to win the IA caucus and NH primary in the same year
That Magellan poll showing Mitt Romney statistically tied with Newt Gingrich in New Hampshire may be an outlier, the one poll in 20 that statistical theory tells us is wrong. New Hampshire polling since August has shown Romney at the 40% level; the Magellan poll has him at 29%, narrowly ahead of Gingrich’s 27%.
"So it looks like Romney is betting he can do well enough in Iowa to make the firewall stand."
But the Romney people evidently don’t think Magellan is an outlier, or aren’t willing to take a chance. That is my conclusion as I read Jeff Zeleny’s New York Times story that Romney is intending to make a big effort in Iowa. Zeleny notes that the Romney folks are, finally, opening a statewide headquarters in a former Blockbuster store on Ingersoll Avenue in Des Moines, and reports that Romney supporters are getting in touch with Iowans who supported him in the 2008 precinct caucuses. Romney has made appearances in Iowa on only four days this year, according to the Des Moines Register’s candidate tracker. He was in Des Moines on August 10 and 11, but didn’t stick around two days for the August 13 straw poll in Ames, 30 miles away. But the Romney candidate has now scheduled candidate appearances in December in preparation for the January 3 caucuses. And Zeleny quotes Romney operatives as saying that no other campaign has got a serious on-the-ground organization.
Why is Romney ramping up in Iowa? If a quarter of his support in New Hampshire can melt away as Newt Gingrich surges (which did not happen during the Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and Herman Cain surges), then his firewall in the first primary state is not nearly as solid as everyone has been thinking. Not solid enough, perhaps, to remain in place if he does poorly in Iowa. So it looks like Romney is betting he can do well enough in Iowa to make the firewall stand. And of course if he wins both Iowa and New Hampshire—something no Republican has ever done—he would might well clinch the nomination very early.
Michael Barone is a resident fellow at AEI
