Rebels without a clue

All the talk about the U.S. government hitting the brick wall of bankruptcy next week misses many of the finer points of fiscal mechanics.

The precise statement of the problem comes in three parts.

First, if forecasts of volatile Treasury deposits and withdrawals come in on track, the Treasury's account at the Federal Reserve would go into overdraft around August 2. This is an uncertain projection because the United States is spread over half a continent and has many global entanglements. Figuring out the balance in the government's checking account each day, let alone a week in advance, involves guess work.

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About the Author

 

Vincent R.
Reinhart
  • Vincent Reinhart, a former director of the Federal Reserve Board's Division of Monetary Affairs, joined AEI in 2008 after working on domestic and international aspects of U.S. monetary policy at the Fed for more than two decades. He held a number of senior positions in the Divisions of Monetary Affairs and International Finance and served for the last six years of his Federal Reserve career as secretary and economist of the Federal Open Market Committee. Mr. Reinhart worked on topics as varied as economic bubbles and the conduct of monetary policy, auctions of U.S. Treasury securities, alternative strategies for monetary policy, and the efficient communication of monetary policy decisions. At AEI, he has continued his work on all of the above in addition to research on key economic variables before and after adverse global and country-specific shocks, policy mistakes leading to the 2007-09 financial meltdown, and the implementation and impact of quantitative easing.
  • Email: vincent.reinhart@aei.org

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Wednesday, April 16, 2014 | 10:00 a.m. – 11:00 a.m.
Calling treason by its name: A conversation with Liam Fox

Join us at AEI as the Right Honorable Liam Fox sits down with Marc Thiessen to discuss and debate whether America’s intelligence agencies have infringed on the personal privacy of US citizens.

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Thursday, April 17, 2014 | 4:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m.
The curmudgeon's guide to getting ahead

How can young people succeed in workplaces dominated by curmudgeons who are judging their every move? At this AEI book event, bestselling author and social scientist Charles Murray will offer indispensable advice for navigating the workplace, getting ahead, and living a fulfilling life.

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