Rebuking the 'new' New Deal
Obama’s poll numbers give Democrats the midterm blues.

Reuters

President Barack Obama steps off Marine One after landing on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, January 15, 2014.

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Article Highlights

  • Even a popular president can usually expect disappointing midterm results for his party.

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  • The Obama administration is poised to give an incredible gift to the Republican party.

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  • Before the end of the year, up to 80 million people could see their health plans canceled.

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It wasn’t supposed to be like this.

At the end of 2013, the Washington Post’s electoral number-crunchers calculated that the Democrats had a 1 percent chance to win back the House of Representatives. Barely into 2014, that already seems pretty optimistic. In the last week, several Democratic representatives saw the writing on the wall and voted with their feet — or with their seat — and announced they will be retiring.

Even a popular president can usually expect disappointing midterm results for his party. What makes things particularly dire for Democrats is that a president’s approval rating has a significant impact on his party’s prospects. Obama’s approval rating is in the low 40s, and, while things can change, few would bet it will improve all that much between now and November.

One reason for that: The Obama administration is poised to give an incredible gift to the Republican party. Before the end of the year, up to 80 million people could see their health plans canceled. Economist Stan Veuger, my colleague at the American Enterprise Institute, estimates that at least half of the estimated 157 million people on employer-provided health plans will start losing their existing coverage by the end of 2014 because their plans don’t conform to the more generous — and expensive — demands of the Affordable Care Act. The bulk of the cancellation letters notifying employees should be going out in October, right before the midterm elections.

This could be the single most effective direct-mail campaign material in American history, and Republicans won’t even have to pay for the postage.

The president’s agenda for 2014, write Manu Raj and Carrie Budoff Brown of Politico, is a mix of initiatives designed to energize the Democratic base of women, students, and blue-collar workers, and to attract independent voters — a.k.a. the parts of the Obama presidential coalition he needs to turn out in the midterms.

Obama’s standing with all of these groups has dropped considerably since the square-wheeled “rollout” of Obamacare. A slim majority of young people and women don’t approve of his performance. As for independents, the key group for midterm elections, only 35 percent approve of his “handling his job as president,” according to a recent Quinnipiac University poll. Fifty-three percent don’t believe he is honest and trustworthy.

Imagine how they’ll feel when they’re notified that their insurance premiums (and deductibles) are going up and their doctor is no longer available. On the very off chance that they won’t know who to blame, all they’ll need to do is turn on the TV, which will be blaring ads showing their Democratic congressman or senator parroting Obama’s lie that Obamacare will save you money and that you can keep your insurance and your doctor if you like them.

Like the president himself, Obama’s fans have an unshakable faith in his ability to move the electorate to his side. And while it’s obviously true that he’s been good at getting himself elected, he’s inversely successful at getting anyone else elected, which is why Senators Mary Landrieu (D., La.) and Kay Hagan (D., N.C.) chose not to appear with Obama during his recent visits to their states.

In 2009, retiring Arkansas representative Marion Berry presciently warned that Obamacare was setting up the Democrats for a huge defeat in the 2010 midterms, just like “Hillarycare” had led to a loss of 54 House seats in 1994. Obama scoffed at such concerns. According to Berry, the president told him, “Well, the big difference here and in ’94 was you’ve got me.” Republicans went on to win 63 House seats and six Senate seats. It was the largest swing in the House since 1938. So I guess the difference was him.

Again, it wasn’t supposed to be like this. President Obama’s election was supposed to be the start of a “new New Deal.” With unstoppable majorities in both the House and Senate, Obama would lift the curtain on a new progressive era where our faith in government would be restored. Now, according to Gallup, the American people consider government itself to be the No. 1 problem facing the country.

Liberals are still convinced that their vision is what America wants and needs and that Obama is the right man to give it to us. Assuming Republicans don’t immolate themselves — always a possibility — that vision will receive yet another massive rebuke in November. The interesting question then will be whether liberals question the soundness of their faith or insist that the fault lies entirely with the false prophet who failed to deliver them to the Promised Land.

— Jonah Goldberg is the author of The Tyranny of Clichés, now on sale in paperback. You can write to him by e-mail at goldbergcolumn@gmail.com, or via Twitter @JonahNRO. © 2014 Tribune Media Services, Inc.

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About the Author

 

Jonah
Goldberg

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    A bestselling author and columnist, Jonah Goldberg's nationally syndicated column appears regularly in scores of newspapers across the United States. He is also a columnist for the Los Angeles Times, a member of the board of contributors to USA Today, a contributor to Fox News, a contributing editor to National Review, and the founding editor of National Review Online. He was named by the Atlantic magazine as one of the top 50 political commentators in America. In 2011 he was named the Robert J. Novak Journalist of the Year at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC). He has written on politics, media, and culture for a wide variety of publications and has appeared on numerous television and radio programs. Prior to joining National Review, he was a founding producer for Think Tank with Ben Wattenberg on PBS and wrote and produced several other PBS documentaries. He is the recipient of the prestigious Lowell Thomas Award. He is the author of two New York Times bestsellers, The Tyranny of Clichés (Sentinel HC, 2012) and Liberal Fascism (Doubleday, 2008).  At AEI, Mr. Goldberg writes about political and cultural issues for American.com and the Enterprise Blog.

    Follow Jonah Goldberg on Twitter.


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    Email: jonah.goldberg@aei.org

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