The greenhouse effect is real--without it none of us would be alive. The enhanced greenhouse effect--or "global warming"--is contestable science, with as yet little empirical support. Some warming of the Earth's atmosphere may have occurred over the past 100 years, though most of the observed change occurred before 1940. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) have approximately doubled since 1850, but most of that increase occurred after 1940. Rising levels of carbon dioxide may well be beneficial. Crop yields should increase and water requirements fall. (Good news for those living in arid places.) Uncertainty should make us more rather than less wary of imposing limits on emissions of GHGs. Carbon taxes and subsidies to energy efficiency are both unnecessary and inefficient. Most research into the social and economic costs of global warming is futile since neither costs nor benefits can be estimated. Government funded research into climatology can geoengineering crowds out private investment and encourages a false consensus. All energy subsidies and taxes should be eliminated--the market and its supporting institutions will then be able to adapt more readily and rapidly to a changing environment. In this study the authors examine the so-called scientific "consensus" about global warming. They argue climate change is a problem of great complexity, and such analysis as has been made by no means supports the view that climate change would place intolerable burdens on future generations.

Roger Bate is a visiting fellow at AEI.