AEI-Pacific Research Institute Publication Date: April 2004 Paperback ISBN: n/a

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July 2004
2004 Index of Leading Environmental Indicators (Ninth Edition)
By Steven F. Hayward
With contributions by Michael De Alessi, Holly Lippke Fretwell, Brent Haglund, Joel Schwartz, Ryan Stowers, and Samuel Thernstrom

The Index of Leading Environmental Indicators, copublished by the AEI Press and the Pacific Research Institute, is an annual checkup on environmental trends and controversies in the United States. The Index analyzes and summarizes overlooked government data on the environment, most of which demonstrates substantial environmental progress over the last generation. Steven F. Hayward is the F. K. Weyerhaeuser Fellow at AEI.

The Year in Review

The Index has broadened its scope in recent editions to offer a retrospective on the major environmental issues of the past year. The major story in the United States continues to be the political fury surrounding the Bush administration's environmental approach. A chorus of critics is claiming that "George W. Bush will go down in history as America's worst environmental president." These criticisms directly echo charges made against Ronald Reagan, the previous "worst environmental president," in the early 1980s. A check of the record from the 1980s, however, reveals consistent, substantial improvement in air quality, water quality, and protection of land resources. Few of the charges made against Bush today refer to actual year-on-year trends, which show that steady improvement continues. The public appears not to be paying much attention to these frothy charges: opinion polls surprisingly show that President Bush's approval ratings on the environment are about the same as President Clinton's environmental approval ratings at a similar point in his first term.

The other big story of 2003 was the continuing erosion of political and scientific support for Kyoto-style action on climate change. Russia shook up climate diplomacy late last year with its announcement that it would not ratify the Kyoto Protocol, which would prevent it from taking effect (though Russia has backtracked slightly in recent weeks). On the scientific front, economists Ian Castles of Australia and David Henderson of the United Kingdom have raised major doubts about the accuracy of greenhouse gas emissions forecasts, and two Canadian statisticians, Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick, have launched a major critique of the methodology behind one of the main totems of global warming--Michael Mann's famous "hockey stick" graph that shows recent decades to be the warmest in the last thousand years. An ugly, full-scale scientific dispute has commenced.

The ninth edition also samples some of the latest scientific literature on the formidable difficulties of developing hydrogen energy and fuel cells, the latest difficulties and environmental tradeoffs of wind power, the vindication of Bjorn Lomborg, and the unfortunate political controversy surrounding the release of the EPA's superb Draft Report on the Environment.

Air Quality

Air quality measures show continued incremental improvement on the national level (see table 1), but the Index notes backtracking in ozone in several local areas, especially California. What is most notable is the disproportionate number of exceedences of the ozone standard on weekends, when emissions of ozone precursors--volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx)--are typically lower than on weekdays. Air quality scientists are increasingly puzzled by this "weekend effect," but the evidence suggests that air quality control measures are ironically contributing to this perverse result. Ozone levels depend on complex ratios of different pollutants, and the reduction of NOx ahead of VOC reductions can actually raise ozone levels in some conditions. This presents the prospect of rising ozone levels over the next decade even as emissions continue to fall. The report suggests some adjustments to air pollution abatement policies should be considered.

Table 1: Change in Ambient Air Pollution Levels in the United States, 1976-2002

Ozone	-31%
Sulfur Dioxides	-70%
Nitrogen Dioxide	-41%
Carbon Monoxide	-75%
Particulates (PM10)*	-28%
Lead	-98%
(*1988-2002), Source: EPA

For the first time, the Index includes a comparison of U.S. trends with European trends, which will be a regular feature in future editions. Such comparisons can be difficult, as the European Union measures and reports environmental statistics differently than the United States. This year's report examined air pollution emissions trends, finding that emission trends of the United States and the EU are roughly the same, especially when considered per capita or per dollar of GDP. (See tables 2 and 3.)

Table 2: U.S. and EU Emissions Reductions Per Capita, 1982-1998

	U.S.	EU
SO2	-67.6%	-31.4%
VOCs	-43.2%	-26.4%
NOx	-22.4%	-21.4%
CO	-45.4%	-36.7%
Source: EPA and European Environment Agency

Table 3: U.S. and EU Emissions Reductions Per Dollar of GDP, 1982-1998

	U.S.	EU
SO2	-69.8%	-88.1%
VOCs	-75.0%	-73.0%
NOx	-65.8%	-71.1%
CO	-76.8%	-76.0%
Source: EPA and European Environment Agency

Water Quality

A lack of consistent, comprehensive trend data for water quality in the United States remains one of the largest frustrations in the development of meaningful environmental indicators. The EPA's Draft Report on the Environment last year also noted this problem: "At this time there is not sufficient information to provide a national answer to this question [of water quality] with confidence and scientific credibility." While water quality monitoring is much less reliable than that of air quality, there have been improvements in recent years. Indiana, Maryland, and at least seventeen other states are developing statistical sampling systems that promise to produce more useful trend data.

In the meantime, researchers must pick over the partial sources of data for clues about water quality trends. One new data set reported in this edition shows that the percentage of the U.S. population served by water systems that have reported no violations of any health-based standard has risen from 79 percent in 1993 to 94 percent in 2002. (See figure 1. Questions about the reliability of this data have been raised, however.) This edition of the Index also reports data showing a long-term decline in the number of waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States and data on the rapid increase in the number of dam removals taking place, which help restore free-flowing rivers and streams, and Michael DeAlessi reports on the role water trusts are playing in alleviating many of the chronic water problems of the arid western states.

Toxics

The 2004 Index reports that the Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) showed another small decline in 2001 (the most recent year for which data had been compiled as of the publication date), representing a 60-percent cumulative decline in toxic chemical releases since 1988. (See figure 2.) The Index also examines the 90-percent decline in dioxin since 1970, a trend that has gone virtually unnoticed. (See figure 3.) The EPA estimates that more than half of the dioxin that remains in the environment today comes from backyard trash fires.

This edition also revisits the phenomenon known as hormesis-the thesis that small doses of toxics actually stimulate natural resistance in organisms, including humans. Nature, Science, and Scientific American have recently run stories updating the growing scientific interest in what was once considered a fringe or quack idea.

Percentage of the Population Served by Community Water Systems with No Reported Violations of Health-Based Standards

Source: EPA

Toxics Release Inventory, 1988 Baseline

Source: EPA

Dioxin Emission Trends, 1987-2003

Source: EPA

_{^{(* TEQ stands for "toxic equivalents." Dioxin has many varieties, and this is a conventional way of aggregating them for measurement purposes.)}}

New Species Listed under the Endangered Species Act, 1996-2003

Source: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Public Lands

Each year the Index includes an in-depth look at a particular environment subject. This year's topic was the condition and management of America's vast public lands. Holly Lippke Fretwell of the Property and Environment Research Center (PERC) reports that the news here is not as positive as many other domestic environmental trends. There are billions of dollars in maintenance backlogs, sewage contamination in Yellowstone, and 90 to 200 million acres of federal land at high risk of catastrophic fire. The root of the problem is not a lack of funds but an excess of political management. The solution lies in alternatives such as state trusts to manage specific land tracts and allowing the public to lease land and resources.

Species and Habitat Conservation

The year 2003 marked the thirtieth anniversary of the Endangered Species Act (ESA), which remains embroiled in controversy. In recent years there has been a decline in the number of species added to the ESA, a trend that began under the Clinton administration and is largely the result of protracted litigation surrounding any additional species and habitat designations. (See figure 4.) Private efforts at species conservation, such as the Peregrine Fund, have been very successful, and the new Safe Harbor program is helping remove the disincentives to landowners that had been created by the ESA.