A time traveler from the 1970s, looking upon American politics at the start of this presidential year, would find much of what he saw incomprehensible. Instead of the institutionalized Democratic power he had come to take for granted in Congress, he would find Republican majorities. He would discover a robust conservative intellectual establishment capable of outtalking any liberal media elite--something that did not exist three decades ago. The Democratic power base in state government would be missing as well, replaced by a remarkably efficient Republican apparatus for generating candidates and campaign cash. Despite these victories, the GOP has lost the presidential popular vote three times in a row--and is at serious risk of losing it again. Has American politics entered a period of Republican ascendancy--or is that an illusion? And do the current Republican majorities represent a triumph of conservatism--or could that be an illusion too?

Alan Ehrenhalt has served as executive editor of Governing magazine since 1991. He started at Governing Magazine in 1988 as political editor and served as deputy editor before taking on his current role. Before joining Governing Magazine, Mr. Ehrenhalt's professional career included positions with the Associated Press, the Washington Star, and Congressional Quarterly. He is also a contributor to USA Today, the New York Times Book Review and op-ed page, the Washington Post Book World, and the New Republic. Mr. Ehrenhalt is the author of The United States of Ambition (1991), The Lost City (1995), and Democracy in the Mirror (1999).