When Does a Downturn Become a Recession?

Official declarations that the economy is in a recession have a significant impact on policy debates. Yet these announcements often occur months after a recession has already begun. Delays in determining the endpoint of a recession can have a negative effect on fiscal and monetary policy. In this seminar, participants will discuss the recent efforts to construct economic models that rely upon real-time data to calculate the probability of a recession. They will also review the performance of these models and evaluate the pros and cons of having a government agency--instead of a private organization--calculate and report the probability of a formal recession.
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About the Author

 

Kevin A.
Hassett

  • Kevin A. Hassett is the John G. Searle Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). He is also a resident scholar and AEI's director of economic policy studies.


    Before joining AEI, Hassett was a senior economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and an associate professor of economics and finance at Columbia (University) Business School. He served as a policy consultant to the US Department of the Treasury during the George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton administrations.


    Hassett has also been an economic adviser to presidential candidates since 2000, when he became the chief economic adviser to Senator John McCain during that year's presidential primaries. He served as an economic adviser to the George W. Bush 2004 presidential campaign, a senior economic adviser to the McCain 2008 presidential campaign, and an economic adviser to the Mitt Romney 2012 presidential campaign.


    Hassett is the author or editor of many books, among them "Rethinking Competitiveness" (2012), "Toward Fundamental Tax Reform" (2005), "Bubbleology: The New Science of Stock Market Winners and Losers" (2002), and "Inequality and Tax Policy" (2001). He is also a columnist for National Review and has written for Bloomberg.


    Hassett frequently appears on Bloomberg radio and TV, CNBC, CNN, Fox News Channel, NPR, and "PBS NewsHour," among others. He is also often quoted by, and his opinion pieces have been published in, the Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post.


    Hassett has a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and a B.A. in economics from Swarthmore College.




  • Phone: 202-862-7157
    Email: khassett@aei.org
  • Assistant Info

    Name: Emma Bennett
    Phone: 202-862-5862
    Email: emma.bennett@aei.org

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Tuesday, August 06, 2013 | 12:00 p.m. – 1:30 p.m.
Uniting universal coverage and personal choice: A new direction for health reform

Join some of the authors, along with notable health scholars from the left and right, for the release of “Best of Both Worlds: Uniting Universal Coverage and Personal Choice in Health Care,” and a new debate over the priorities and policies that will most effectively reform health care.

No events scheduled this day.
No events scheduled this day.
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No events scheduled this day.
No events scheduled this day.
No events scheduled today.
No events scheduled this day.