Global Currency War, Endless Financial Crises: What's Wrong with the International Monetary System?

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Post Event Summary
Since the end of the gold-based fixed exchange rate system in 1971 and the transition to a floating exchange rate system, severe banking and monetary crises have plagued the world almost nonstop. The current post-Bretton Woods system has created some peaceful financial periods, such as the Great Moderation in the United States, but the current account imbalances created by the system are alarming and can be disastrous. Thursday at AEI, a panel of economic experts gathered to discuss the current monetary system and how to improve it.

Robert Aliber from the University of Chicago traced the characteristics of these recurring imbalances that lead to financial shocks and demonstrated that the floating exchange rate system fails to achieve the ends promoted by Milton Friedman and others in the 1960s and '70s. Anne Kruger, former first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, picked up where Aliber's history left off and examined the failures of the multilateral monetary system and the massive capital flow problems created by its perverse incentives. AEI's Desmond Lachman then argued that international participants can choose only two of three options: free trade, free capital flows and floating exchange rates. If all three are employed, the system will suffer crisis-inducing imbalances. AEI's John Makin concluded by pointing out that the system, for all its flaws, is better today than it was in the past, given the level of international cooperation to combat major financial problems, a sharp contrast to Aliber's and Kruger's pessimism.

Event Description
In the aftermath of the Great Recession and the ongoing debt crisis, all countries want cheaper currencies to promote export growth. This has prompted Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega to sound the alarm about the dangers of a global "currency war." The current system of floating fiat currencies, which followed the collapse of the Bretton Woods agreements in 1971, is now four decades old and has been marked by recurring financial crises and extreme exchange rate volatility. The euro is an attempt to go in the opposite direction, with a fixed exchange rate for a large region, but is itself in crisis. Can the current post-Bretton Woods international monetary system prevent a return to the beggar-thy-neighbor policies and competitive devaluations that so harmed international prosperity in the 1930s? What are the system's flaws? Can they be corrected, and if so, how? An expert panel will address these and related issues.

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About the Author

 

John H.
Makin
  • John H. Makin is a former consultant to the U.S. Treasury Department, the Congressional Budget Office, and the International Monetary Fund. He specializes in international finance and financial markets (stock, bonds, and currencies including the Euro and the U.S. dollar). He also researches the U.S. economy (including monetary policy and tax and budget issues), the Japanese economy, and European economies. He is the author of numerous books and articles on financial, monetary, and fiscal policy. Dr. Makin writes AEI's monthly Economic Outlook.
  • Phone: 202-862-5828
    Email: jmakin@aei.org
  • Assistant Info

    Name: Daniel Hanson
    Phone: 202-862-5883
    Email: daniel.hanson@aei.org

 

Desmond
Lachman
  • Desmond Lachman joined AEI after serving as a managing director and chief emerging market economic strategist at Salomon Smith Barney. He previously served as deputy director in the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Policy Development and Review Department and was active in staff formulation of IMF policies. Mr. Lachman has written extensively on the global economic crisis, the U.S. housing market bust, the U.S. dollar, and the strains in the euro area. At AEI, Mr. Lachman is focused on the global macroeconomy, global currency issues, and the multilateral lending agencies.
  • Phone: 202-862-5844
    Email: dlachman@aei.org
  • Assistant Info

    Name: Daniel Hanson
    Phone: 202.862.5883
    Email: Daniel.Hanson@aei.org

 

Alex J.
Pollock
  • Alex Pollock joined AEI in 2004 after thirty-five years in banking. He was president and chief executive officer of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago from 1991 to 2004. He is the author of numerous articles on financial systems and the organizer of the “Deflating Bubble” series of AEI conferences. In 2007, he developed a one-page mortgage form to help borrowers understand their mortgage obligations. At AEI, he focuses on financial policy issues, including housing finance, government-sponsored enterprises, retirement finance, corporate governance, accounting standards, and the banking system. He is the lead director of CME Group, a director of Great Lakes Higher Education Corporation and the International Union for Housing Finance, and chairman of the board of the Great Books Foundation.

    CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD ALEX POLLOCK'S ONE-PAGE MORTGAGE FORM
  • Phone: 2028627190
    Email: apollock@aei.org
  • Assistant Info

    Name: Emily Rapp
    Phone: (202) 419-5212
    Email: emily.rapp@aei.org

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