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On May 1, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh refused to sign a deal aimed at ending nearly four months of political upheaval threatening to destabilize the country. The prospect of regime change or even state collapse in Yemen undermines the entire basis of American counterterrorism operations there and brings to the fore the danger posed by al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), a group which has already attempted multiple attacks on US soil. Nonetheless, the United States has not developed a coherent strategic approach toward Yemen. What is likely to happen in Yemen? How will it impact AQAP's ability to attack the homeland? And what should US policy be?