The State of the Race
WASHINGTON, MARCH 20, 2008 -- Conventional wisdom about the presidential primaries at one time indicated that Democrats would settle on their nominee early, while Republicans would battle it out until the Republican National Convention. Most people believed Iraq would be the dominant issue in the campaign. Today, John McCain has already secured his party's nomination, and Barack Obama looks poised to win the Democratic nod. The economy has now eclipsed Iraq as the foremost issue for voters. So much for conventional wisdom. At session four of Election Watch 2008, AEI's Political Corner panelists discussed polling data on Iraq and the economy, the latest presidential campaign developments, and the outlook for the congressional elections.
Karlyn Bowman commented on the strengths and weaknesses of the three remaining candidates, noting that "initial impressions tend to stick." This could be problematic for the Clinton campaign, as only 44 percent of those polled perceive Hillary as honest and trustworthy. Obama and McCain came in at 63 percent and 67 percent, respectively. Clinton may win on experience, but Obama polled the highest when people were asked who they would be most proud to have as president. McCain is still considered strongest on national security issues, including Iraq.
Pessimism about the economy is now approaching 1979-80 levels, with generic Democrats beating generic Republicans on handling the economy. Norman J. Ornstein said that as the economy becomes a bigger issue, McCain will be at a disadvantage. In a recent Gallup/USA Today poll, 86 percent of respondents said the country's economic condition is getting worse, and in another poll, people believed Obama or Clinton could handle the economy better than McCain. McCain should be cautious about his ties to the administration, Ornstein warned, especially since 76 percent of those polled believe the next president should take a different approach from that of George W. Bush.
Obama recently came under attack when the anti-American comments of his pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, drew national attention. Ornstein concurred with AEI's Charles Murray that Obama's speech in response to the controversy was "flat-out brilliant." He cautioned, however, that the heart of the issue is an anti-Americanism that has surfaced at several points throughout Obama's campaign, starting with his decision not to wear a flag pin on his lapel and continuing when his wife said at a rally that "for the first time" she was proud of America. Surrounding himself with people who express anti-American sentiments, Michael Barone added, "will likely alienate some Democratic voters" because these sentiments "undercut" what he has been saying on the stump about unifying America.
Despite Obama's spate of negative press and Clinton's recent gains in the Texas and Ohio primaries, Ornstein said that "Obama is still a solid favorite to win the Democratic nomination," noting that it will be virtually impossible for Clinton to close the delegate gap. Barone agreed. John C. Fortier pointed out, however, that Clinton seems to have staunched the flow of superdelegates to Obama following his impressive string of eleven post-Super Tuesday victories. Next she must deliver a strong victory in Pennsylvania--whose voters resemble those in Ohio--in order to stay competitive through June. The decision not to revote in Michigan and Florida dealt a blow to her campaign, as winning those delegates would have brought her within striking distance of Obama approaching the Democratic National Convention.
The decision may ultimately rest with the superdelegates, the panel agreed. If Clinton can build momentum going into the convention, they may be inclined to back her over Obama. Barone said that this year "superdelegates are in a position to reject either the first African-American candidate with a serious shot at the presidency or the first woman with a serious shot." He added that the general election may look very different than the elections in 2000 and 2004. Some states that traditionally have been "red" or "blue" could switch depending on the Democratic nominee. "People always want to know what state will be the next Florida," Barone said. The reality is that "many states will be in play." These issues were explored at a recent AEI-Brookings Conference on election demographics.
The red state/blue state shift may also affect congressional elections. Fortier closed the panel by commenting on the number of open seats favoring Democrats in the House elections; the loss for Republicans of Dennis Hastert's Illinois seat; and the likelihood that the number of women in both the House and Senate will remain stable, despite strong challenges to Senators Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Mary Landrieu (D-La.).
AEI's Election Watch series is the longest-running election program in Washington. At the next session, to be held on April 24, panelists will discuss the results of the Pennsylvania primary as well as the emerging themes of the general election.
--LAURA DRINKWINE
For video and audio from this conference, visit www.aei.org/event1651/.
For more information, contact Adam Foster at afoster@aei.org or 202.828.5917.
For media inquiries, contact Véronique Rodman at vrodman@aei.org or 202.862.4870.
