April 2007

Sustaining the Surge: Phase II of Choosing Victory: A Plan for Success in Iraq

At this April 25 AEI event, resident scholar Frederick W. Kagan presented his final phase II report of Choosing Victory: A Plan for Success in Iraq. The report addressed critical issues such as training and equipping the Iraqi Security Forces, efficient and effective economic assistance, and building the capacity of the Iraqi government. The report outlines how the United States can build on the momentum provided by the surge and begin the “hold” operations needed to consolidate the peace.

Frederick W. Kagan
AEI

While there are both positive and negative developments occurring on the ground in Iraq, success is measurably closer today than it was just months ago. Importantly, the situation in Anbar province, which was once considered hopeless, has dramatically improved. Sunni tribal leaders are turning against al Qaeda and supporting Iraqi and coalition forces, which are targeting al Qaeda aggressively throughout Iraq. Al Qaeda terrorists have responded to these developments by fleeing Anbar and conducting a campaign of spectacular attacks against Sunni leaders and civilians in nearby provinces in order to “re-terrorize” them into supporting al Qaeda.

There has also been a dramatic decrease in sectarian violence since January. Sectarian murders are down significantly, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and the Iraqi government have been supportive of Multinational Force - Iraq operations against Shia targets, and militia leaders appear to be losing traction. Although victory is not certain at this point, it remains achievable.

The phase II report explores how non-kinetic measures can complement the surge in supporting a secure Iraq. Contrary to the ideas of many in the development community, unsustainable short-term projects may be necessary in Iraq to defeat the insurgency. Thus, the report refers to “economic assistance,” not “reconstruction.” Constitutional reform--including the hydrocarbon law and holding elections based on districts rather than national lists--needs to take place. The Iraqi military must be expanded and trained so that it can stand on its own. Other economic, social, and political projects should be undertaken with security in mind. Different metrics are needed, as current metrics do not adequately measure progress. Finally, creative measures should be employed to get the American people more involved in helping the Iraqi people and supporting American soldiers.

The Iraqis are a proud people who desire sovereignty. It is the moral and strategic responsibility of the United States to help them attain this goal.

AEI intern Adrian Myers prepared this summary.