The first oil from the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline is due to arrive in Ceyhan, Turkey, at the end of October, just days ahead of Azerbaijan’s November 6 parliamentary elections. This nexus of events has raised many questions about the potential for political reform in Azerbaijan; the BTC could shift both the regional balance of power and Azerbaijan’s internal balance of power. President Ilham Aliyev, elected to the presidency after the death of his father, has said that he will use the new oil revenue to promote development and reform throughout his country, and his government has taken steps toward ensuring a free and fair parliamentary election. But President Aliyev’s political opponents, who have already adopted orange as a talisman for their movements, fear that he will use the fruits of the BTC and the estimated 14 percent growth in Azerbaijan’s GDP in 2006 to build a patronage network and make himself another post-Soviet president-for-life.

But what is the reality of the situation? Azerbaijan has been an important regional ally in the U.S.-led war on terror. But with a variety of concerns spanning energy markets, Iran and other regional powers, and the “freedom agenda,” the question remains, what should the United States’ policy on Azerbaijan be?

To discuss the future of Azerbaijan and U.S. policy in the region, AEI will host Isa Gambar, chairman of Azerbaijan’s Musavat party; Zeyno Baran, director of international security and energy programs at the Nixon Center; and S. Frederick Starr, chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at SAIS. Reuel Marc Gerecht will moderate the panel.