According to most projections, Western Europe and the United States are poised to undergo an unprecedented “demographic divergence.” Over the next generation, Europe’s demographic profile will age markedly; its working-age population will begin to contract in size; deaths will regularly exceed births; and the population as a whole will begin to shrink, possibly indefinitely. The United States, by contrast, is expected to see steady and continuing population growth for all age groups, and America is likely to remain the most “youthful” of any major developed society.
What does this impending “demographic drift” portend for transatlantic relations? Will a more elderly Europe be more cautious about international security cooperation? Will a demographically strong United States find its partnership with a demographically stagnant Europe to be of declining international value? As Western Europe ages and its workforce shrinks, will that make it more risk-averse, with too small a tax base to fund missions abroad? And do the sharply different demographic patterns in store for America and Europe reflect underlying differences in popular values and attitudes that may complicate the relationship between these historical allies?
Join us as AEI’s Nicholas Eberstadt, Policy Review editor Tod Lindberg, and the Population Reference Bureau’s Barbara Boyle Torrey examine these and other issues in a session of stimulating and rigorous speculation. AEI’s Megan Davy will moderate.