September 2004

Election Watch

Heading into the final stages of the election, President Bush has emerged as the frontrunner in the presidential race.  The lead is certainly not insurmountable, but the president is now consistently polling above 50 percent. The two conventions focused exclusively on single issues--for the Democrats, Vietnam; for the Republicans, 9/11.  At the Democratic Convention, instead of criticizing Bush's record, Democrats only drew attention to Kerry's Vietnam record--in hindsight, this was a lost opportunity for the Democratic ticket to make the race about the incumbent and his record. 

Polls continue to show that voters list the economy as their overall top concern--but not by a clear majority.  Iraq and the war on terrorism still loom large for the electorate.  Among those voters who list the economy as their top issue, Kerry continues to hold a lead, but those listing national security and terrorism as more important are pulling for Bush. 

In sharp contrast to 2000, this election is not about the issues as much as it is about the candidates' personal qualities.  Bush has a huge advantage over Kerry with personal qualities.  The flip-flopping charge that the Bush campaign pegged on Kerry has stuck with polls and focus groups.

As far as the "bounce" coming out of the Republican convention, the better poll numbers for Bush can be attributed to two factors.  First, the convention played to Bush's strength--leadership and the war on terrorism.  Additionally, people just generally like Bush in much the same way they liked Bill Clinton.  They think he is a nice guy and, just like Bill Clinton, cannot understand why so many people hate him.

Norman J. Ornstein
AEI

While Bush might be ahead in the race, the contest still remains very fluid, with the possibility of outside events playing a critical role.  For example, the hurricanes in Florida might play well for Bush because the state now sees him dispensing federal aid and assisting with relief efforts.  On the flipside, the hardest hit areas are Republican strongholds, and voter turnout might be slightly depressed as a result.  In a close election, acts of God could change the terrain. 

Turning to the polls, there is still a great discrepancy between the likely-voter and registered-voter numbers.  Likely voters are giving Bush a much bigger lead than registered voters.  Determining likely voters is also tricky, and most of the poll results vary wildly when using this screen.

In comparing this race to past elections, 1980 might be a good template.  In September of that year, Carter still led Reagan.  The challenger was perceived as not being fit for office even though the incumbent suffered from a host of problems.  It was not until October and after the debates that America really felt comfortable with Ronald Reagan as president.  In the debates, Kerry will have a critical opportunity to convince voters that he can be president and to shift the race from a referendum on the challenger to a referendum on the incumbent.  In order to do that, however, Kerry has to realize that the debates will really be Kerry versus Kerry--not Kerry versus Bush.  The debate is not about scoring debate points against Bush, but rather convincing the nation that all of the stereotypes about him are not true.

One other wild card might be the performance of Congress leading up to the election.  Congress has a heavy agenda this fall, with little prospect of getting much done.  Republicans might be successful in painting Democrats as obstructionists, but it could also hurt Bush if there is a great deal of bickering and people start to feel that a change is in order for Congress. 

Karlyn H. Bowman
AEI

In the public's mind, the economy continues to drift.  Pluralities of voters say they are in the same shape as they were four years ago but that most of their fellow Americans are worse off.  More people disapprove than approve of the way Bush is handling the economy--but surprisingly, Bush is still either tied or beats Kerry as the candidate who could better handle the economy. 

Regarding terrorism, most Americans say that this administration has made the country safer than it was before.  Bush continues to lead as the candidate better able to handle terrorism and the stronger leader.

Opinion on the wisdom of the Iraq war, however, is more divided.  A recent Gallup poll found that when asked about the one-thousand-deaths mark and what it means for the country, 37 percent said that we should intensify our efforts to withdraw, but 58 percent said the United States should not change its policy towards Iraq. 

The Swift Boat controversy did not change many minds about whether John Kerry deserved the medals he received--solid majorities said he did--but the controversy did acquaint many people with Kerry's anti-war testimony.  Pluralities disapproved of Kerry's anti-war activities, and majorities of veterans disapproved.

What the Swift Boat controversy did accomplish was to shift the emphasis away from Iraq and the economy, something that may have contributed to Bush's improved polls.

Turnout will be critical in this election but can be difficult to measure because so much of what happens occurs underneath the media radar.  Nonetheless, recent polling suggests that important Republican base voters are more enthusiastic about Bush than Democratic base voters are about Kerry.  For example, Hispanics have a less favorable view of Kerry than they did of Gore in 2000; while white, born-again Protestants have a much more favorable view of Bush now than they did in 2000. 

Three traditional swing groups--independents, Catholics, and what pollsters call "some college"--should also be closely watched this election.  In 1992 and 1996, self-described independents voted for the Democrat presidential candidate.  In 2000, they voted just barely for Bush.  So far this year, they have been leaning toward Kerry, but the margin has narrowed considerably to only three points in the latest Gallup poll.    Catholics have also voted for the winner in every recent election.  Kerry is the first Catholic major party candidate since John F. Kennedy, but that fact has escaped most voters.  In fact, only 40 percent of Catholics knew that Kerry was Catholic.  As a whole Catholics have also been leaning towards Kerry, though Catholics that attend church regularly are leaning towards Bush.  The "some college" voting bloc comprise about a one-third of the electorate and are people who either have some vocational or technical education or may have started college and dropped out.  They voted twice for Clinton but went for Bush in 2000.  Thus far this year, they look like a pretty strong Bush group. 

Looking at the big states in play, Democratic consultant Doug Sosnik and Bush pollster Matthew Dowd both agree that the three major battleground states are Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.  Whichever candidate wins two out of the three will probably win the election.

AEI research assistant Bryan O'Keefe prepared this summary.