June 2004
The Hand-off: Toward Iraqi Sovereignty
As the June 30 deadline for the transfer of sovereignty approaches, there are more questions than answers about who will rule Iraq. Dickering for leadership of the interim government continues, and UN envoy Lakhdar Brahimi's choice will be certain to displease some inside Iraq. In addition, uncertainties remain about control of Iraqi funds, veto power over foreign forces, and much more. Is this really the end of the coalition occupation of Iraq, or merely the beginning of another phase of the occupation? Can elections be moved up to satisfy the democratic aspirations of the Iraqi people? At a June 14, 2004 panel, AEI experts took stock of where we are and discussed what is to come.
Michael Rubin
AEI
The progress being made in Iraq is often overshadowed by the negative news that the media is so eager to broadcast. As a result, a full perspective of news from Iraq--where the situation is not as bleak as journalists portray--is absent. In August 2002, The Guardian newspaper from Britain reported that one out of every six Iraqis fled Iraq under Saddam Hussein's regime. Today, refugees are not leaving Iraq; they are returning to Iraq. The Iraqi currency is also growing stronger. It has gone from 2,000 Iraqi dinar to the U.S. dollar in January to around 1,430 Iraqi dinar to the dollar now. In addition, Iraqis are investing hundreds of thousands of dollars in new entrepreneurial ventures, opening up hotels, restaurants, and boutiques. None of this would be happening if the Iraqis did not have confidence in the future of their country.
Unfortunately on June 4, Carina Perelli, the UN elections specialist, announced that the upcoming Iraqi elections would be done by party slate, proportioned throughout the entire country, rather than by single-member constituencies. This decision is contrary to what most Iraqis would prefer. Only 3 percent of Iraqis actually have favorable impressions of political parties. Most favor specific individual politicians, technocratic politicians, or local leaders. A party slate system is an impediment to democracy. A single-member constituency system would fully represent Iraq's ethnic and sectarian diversity. Such a system would set the stage for moderate, tolerant democracy. Iraq is not as communal as outside bureaucrats would like to think. It is not too late to reverse this decision and let the Iraqis create their own system.
Tom Donnelly
AEI
The level of violence in Iraq has decreased significantly over the past few weeks in comparison to prior months. The resistance that the Marines had encountered in Fallujah has been brought under control with the aid of Iraqi intervention that resolved the situation without further bloodshed. This leads to the possibility that perhaps Iraqi-on-Iraqi solutions are better, if still not perfect, solutions. It is encouraging to see that insurgencies like the one that rose in Fallujah have not spread across the entire country.
Since complete American withdrawal from Iraq is highly unlikely, the nature of the Iraqi-American partnership after June 30 needs to be defined. The international community has been a roadblock to the American vision of democracy in Iraq, which means that this partnership will remain a vital one in the coming years.
Richard Perle
AEI
Zuhair al-Maliky is the chief investigative judge of the Central Criminal Court of Iraq (CCCI). The CCCI was designed by Ambassador Paul Bremer, who also appointed Mr. al-Maliky and made him a judge. In fact, Bremer dropped the requirement for prior judicial experience when it was determined that Mr. al-Maliky did not meet the requirement of five years of judicial experience. Mr. al-Maliky is responsible for issuing arrest warrants for people who have been fighting to liberate Iraq from Saddam Hussein for many years. His notion of due process includes threats to the lawyers representing some of the accused, saying that if they continue to press the concerns of their clients, they can find themselves under investigation by the CCCI.
It would be a tragedy if we fought to liberate Iraq only to bring Saddam's style of justice back to the country, which is what the CCCI represents. With the June 30 hand-over, Iraqis have a choice of disbanding the court before it can do any more damage. The CCCI is unconstitutional and illegal under Iraqi law and practice. We are making a grave mistake about Ahmad Chalabi, a man who has honorable intentions and a sustained belief in secular democracy.
Danielle Pletka
AEI
Relying on individuals rather than systems of government has been one of our greatest historical mistakes. And that is one of the mistakes we are making in Iraq by thinking that if we pick the right man--in this case, Iyad Allawi-- somehow he will lead us into the right system.
It is extraordinarily tempting for us, especially those who have talked about the importance of Iraqi sovereignty, to look back and see the mistakes of the last year. And I think that those mistakes were serious and that we are paying a very high price for them, not only in Iraq but internationally. But one of the most important things, now that we have come to our senses and done what we might as easily have done a year ago, is actually to turn around and look forward and ensure that the interim period is not used by those who have been empowered to consolidate power in a way that is antithetical to the interests of the Iraqi people and the future of Iraqi democracy.
This summary was written by AEI intern Raakhi Agrawal with AEI research program manager Molly McKew.
