October 2007
Burma's Saffron Revolution: How Should the World Respond?
In recent weeks, protests in Burma culminated in a military crackdown that left as many as 200 dead and as many as 10,000 arrested. While the United States and the European Union have called for tougher sanctions, Burma's neighbors remain reluctant to pressure the military junta; China benefits from Burma's strategic position and considerable natural resources.
Can the international community ensure that the 2007 repression does not end in many more years of autocratic rule? Will the United States sway China, India, Japan, and Thailand to use their influence in Burma? Is a positive outcome possible without China? Could further sanctions--such as limits on the junta's economic activities in Singapore--affect the Burmese rulers where past sanctions have not?
Aung Din of the U.S. Campaign for Burma, Bo Hla Tint of the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma, and Tom Malinowski of Human Rights Watch joined AEI resident fellow Dan Blumenthal to discuss these and other questions. AEI's Joshua Muravchik moderated.
Bo Hla Tint
National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma
The people's movement for democracy in Burma is very much alive. The protests of the past few months are only a part of the struggle for freedom that has been ongoing for decades. There are a number of steps that can be taken to support the movement for democracy in Burma. The international community and the United States in particular could play an important role in depriving the junta of legitimacy. Sanctions could work but must be directed at the regime rather than the people. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) should also pressure the regime.
The world should help the democracy movement within Burma and elsewhere. Providing logistical assistance, in the form of communications technology, to activists inside Burma would be useful. Engagement with the people of Burma is acceptable, but engagement with the ruling junta is harmful because it gives them legitimacy. The Burmese people are ready for democracy and can work with the military in pursuit of democratization.
Aung Din
U.S. Campaign for Burma
The current situation in Burma differs from that in 1988, the last year in which major protests occurred, thanks to improved communications technologies. Technology has allowed the world to see the Burmese military's brutal response to the protests. The UNSC resolution is good but is not enough. The crackdown on the opposition persists, and the junta continues to arrest prominent leaders. Some dissidents are tortured and even killed in prison.
There are several steps that can be taken to improve the situation. The UNSC needs to pass a Chapter 7 resolution against the junta calling for the release of political prisoners, an end to the violence, and a dialogue with the opposition. Targeted sanctions, including an arms embargo and a travel ban on regime officials, should be implemented. The United States can help by pressuring states that facilitate the junta's financial transactions, such as Singapore. The European Union (EU) should call for the UNSC to adopt a binding resolution with targeted sanctions. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has a summit meeting in November, during which it should take proactive steps to pressure the regime. ASEAN should consider expelling Burma if the junta fail to improve the domestic situation. The United States and the EU need to convince China to reduce its support for the junta.
Tom Malinowski
Human Rights Watch
People should have no illusions about what is happening in Burma--a brutal suppression of dissent is occurring right now. The situation, however, has fundamentally changed and will not return to the status quo. The regime is more isolated domestically and crossed a line when they attacked the monks. Internationally, ASEAN and the UNSC are speaking out against the junta much more than they have in the past. The Burmese government is profoundly worried, but there are things that can be done to move the country towards democracy.
Critics of sanctions are correct in saying that sanctions have not worked thus far. However, sanctions implemented in a smarter way can have a profound effect on the regime; previous sanctions targeted income sources, such as international trade, rather than the income itself. As the world has seen in the case of North Korea, directly freezing bank accounts held by regime officials can bring hostile governments to the negotiating table. The Bush administration has taken the first step in targeting 14 leaders and may expand the list to family leaders and other members of the regime. The EU also needs to apply financial sanctions, or the regime will simply switch its banking transactions from dollars to euros. A focused effort could lead to true change in Burma.
Dan Blumenthal
AEI
It is a sad state of affairs that the United States and other nations constantly call on China to remedy human rights issues, given that China is run by a brutal regime that cares little about human rights. They care about their international reputation and the Olympics but will only move just enough to placate international opinion. China could do much, since Burma is a satellite state like North Korea, but they will not. Chapter 7 sanctions from the UNSC are a good idea but will never happen. Democracies in the region, such as India and Japan, have responded tepidly, and, while ASEAN has moved its position a bit, the progress among ASEAN nations has been marginal at best.
Essentially, the United States and the EU will have to take action alone. Financial sanctions are an excellent way to put pressure on the Burmese regime. The United States also has some intelligence assets that can collect and store information on officials who carry out atrocities for when the regime's "day of reckoning" arrives. The larger issue is that the world has not done much about recent democratic reversals in Asia. Asia does not have strong democratic norms, even though there are many democracies, mainly because these countries fear China's response. Despite that fear, regional institutions that reinforce democratic norms similar to those in Europe should be established.
AEI intern Thomas Brugato prepared this summary.
