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AEI Economic Policy Working Paper Series

The AEI Economic Policy Working Paper Series is intended to make developing academic works available in preliminary form for comments and suggestions. For more information, please contact Brittany Pineros at [email protected]

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Conditional value at risk (CoVaR) and marginal expected shortfall (MES) have been proposed as stock return based measures of the systemic risk created by individual financial institutions even though the literature provides no formal hypothesis test for detecting systemic risk. Our conclusion is that CoVaR and MES are not reliable measures of systemic risk.

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Despite what President Obama’s new tax proposal suggests, skeptics say there is not a linkage between income and equality and economic growth in advanced economies.

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We have just had a free fall in one of the most important prices in the world-the price of oil. Everybody, including all the experts, missed it. How is this possible? The uncomfortable reality reflects three essential facts.

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The record shows that in designing and adopting the Dodd-Frank Act neither the Obama administration nor the Democratic Congress made any effort to understand why there was a financial crisis in 2008. The necessary information was certainly available.

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On Tuesday, President Obama will deliver his seventh State of the Union address. What major policy changes can we expect? How will the different parties respond, and what does this mean for America’s future prosperity and security? AEI experts weigh in.

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Back when gas topped $4 a gallon, Republicans chanted “drill, baby, drill” at rallies across the country — arguing more domestic drilling would increase supplies, reduce dependence on foreign oil and boost the U.S. economy. Democrats, almost universally, mocked the GOP plan. Today, Democrats are singing a different tune.

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The U.S. economy saw the strongest job growth last year since 1999. But despite the fact that employers are hiring more people, the wages they’re paying remain flat.

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The mid-1990s pickup in productivity growth and subsequent slowdown were largely driven by IT. However, the outlook for productivity growth is highly uncertain. That said, semiconductor technology has continued to advance rapidly, and chip prices have continued to fall.

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A half-dozen highly credible studies debunked widely-held economic myths in 2014. Each of these studies illustrate the need to confront wishful thinking with a great deal of skepticism moving ahead into 2015.

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