Time-to-plan lags for commercial construction projects
Stephen D. Oliner, Jonathan N. Millar, Daniel E. Sichel | AEI Economic Policy Working Paper Series
December 20, 2012

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Abstract: Time-to-Plan Lags for Commercial Construction Projects

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We use a large project-level dataset to estimate the length of the planning period for commercial construction projects in the United States. We find that these time-to-plan lags are long, averaging about 17 months when we aggregate the projects without regard to size and more than 28 months when we weight the projects by their construction cost. The full distribution of time-to-plan lags is very wide, and we relate this variation to the characteristics of the project and its location. In addition, we show that time-to-plan lags lengthened by 3 to 4 months, on average, over our sample period (1999 to 2010). Regulatory factors are associated with variations in planning lags across locations, and we present anecdotal evidence that links at least some of the lengthening over time to heightened regulatory scrutiny. 

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About the Author

 

Stephen D.
Oliner

  • Stephen D. Oliner is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and a senior fellow at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Ziman Center for Real Estate.

    Oliner joined AEI after spending more than 25 years at the Federal Reserve Board. An economist by training, Oliner held a number of high-level positions at the Fed and was closely involved in the Fed's analysis of the US economy and financial markets. Since leaving the Fed, Oliner has become well known for his analysis of US monetary policy and has maintained an active research agenda that focuses on real estate issues and the US economy’s growth potential. 

    Oliner has a Ph.D. and an M.S. in economics from the University of Wisconsin. He received a B.A. in economics from the University of Virginia.

  • Phone: 202.419.5205
    Email: stephen.oliner@aei.org

  • Assistant Info

    Name: Emily Rapp
    Phone: 202.419.5212
    Email: emily.rapp@aei.org
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