Economic Fluctuations and Growth

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Earlier this week, two of President Donald Trump’s manufacturing advisory councils disbanded, following controversial comments from the president about the Charlottesville violence. Experts discuss the latest market uncertainty since the dissolution of those councils and the Trump administration’s agenda going forward.

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President Trump cannot take complete credit for July’s positive jobs report. However, some of the figures may reflect companies reacting to the President’s pro-business policies. Despite the current economic indicators, the increase in the rate of job creation without a corresponding spike in wage growth shows that our economy has not reached full employment just yet.

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There is now every prospect that before 2018 is out, the IMF’s latest world economic outlook update will be seen once again to have been wildly optimistic and blind to the real risks that now confront the global economic recovery.

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President Trump is shooting for a 3 percent economic growth through the latest tax reforms. Some experts suggest that these reforms are steps in the right direction, but other factors such as increased labor immigration and investment in innovation are needed to reach the target growth.

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The truth of the matter is that stock market prices are not a very useful measure of how successful an administration’s economic policies are or might have been.

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Like most economic forecasters, the International Monetary Fund never saw Trumponomics as capable of delivering superfast growth ASAP. So now that massive tax cuts and infrastructure spending are looking more unlikely, the IMF is only modestly reducing its near-term outlook.

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When Trump said early in the campaign that he didn’t think the Export-Import Bank (at that point it was in liquidation) should exist because the private sector can and does finance exports, I didn’t get too excited. He was correct on the specific matter, but his personality suggested that this wouldn’t last

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Since about the year 2000 the U.S. has a new normal growth rate that is considerably lower than our previous post-war norm. With slower economic growth comes a drop in the labor force participation rate and an increased dependence on disability insurance programs.

 

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The Fed is set to raise rates this month as it seeks to keep pace with the recent tide of economic optimism and the Trump rally that has followed, but there is not one magic bullet to boost long-term growth. Instead, a portfolio of policy changes is necessary.

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The U.S. dollar has been gaining strength rapidly, which could prove to be a problem for the President because a stronger dollar makes our exports a little less competitive and widens our trade deficit.

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